000 AGXX40 KNHC 020555 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011 UPDATED FOR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROUGH IN THE SW GULF W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W TODAY AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 26N THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW NORTH ATLC... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 27N THROUGH EARLY WED THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TO ALONG 29N INTO THU. LATEST NHC ADVISORY BRINGS TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTO HISPANIOLA WED EVENING AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THU EVENING NEAR 22.0N 75.0W. THEN EMILY IS FORECAST TRACK TO 25.0N 78.0W FRI EVENING AND 27.5N 80.0W SAT EVENING AND STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE WITH WINDS TO 65 KT. FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON TRACK ON 0900 UTC ADVISORY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM EMILY...NEAR 15.5N 63.5W AT 0600 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE. EMILY WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN INTO HISPANIOLA WED EVENING AND THE SW N ATLC WED NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE REMAIN N AND NE OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER QUIET WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL THU NIGHT...WHEN EASTERLY TRADES INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BETWEEN 70W-75W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING THROUGH WED N OF 15N E OF 71W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER DGS