000 AGXX40 KNHC 012349 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011 UPDATED FOR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF TODAY AND FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 27N E OF 87W. OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 26N THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW NORTH ATLC... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 27N THROUGH EARLY WED THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TO ALONG 29N INTO THU. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DEPENDS ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING EMILY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED THEN INTO THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC LATE WED AND THU AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES A WEAKER PERTURBATION ALONG THE SAME TRACK. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...FUTURE INTERACTION WITH ISLANDS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE MARINE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AFTER THE 36-48 HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE SEAS BUILD WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NE SEMICIRCLE TO 15 FT AS IT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SPECIAL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TROPICAL STORM EMILY...NEAR 15.2N 62.0W AT 2330 UTC AUG 1 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE. EMILY WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WED NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE REMAIN N AND NE OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER QUIET WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL THU NIGHT...WHEN EASTERLY TRADES INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BETWEEN 70W-75W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING THROUGH WED N OF 15N E OF 73W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL/HUFFMAN 000 AGXX40 KNHC 012349 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011 UPDATED FOR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF TODAY AND FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 27N E OF 87W. OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 26N THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW NORTH ATLC... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 27N THROUGH EARLY WED THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TO ALONG 29N INTO THU. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DEPENDS ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING EMILY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED THEN INTO THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC LATE WED AND THU AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES A WEAKER PERTURBATION ALONG THE SAME TRACK. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...FUTURE INTERACTION WITH ISLANDS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE MARINE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AFTER THE 36-48 HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE SEAS BUILD WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NE SEMICIRCLE TO 15 FT AS IT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SPECIAL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TROPICAL STORM EMILY...NEAR 15.2N 62.0W AT 2330 UTC AUG 1 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE. EMILY WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WED NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE REMAIN N AND NE OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER QUIET WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL THU NIGHT...WHEN EASTERLY TRADES INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BETWEEN 70W-75W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING THROUGH WED N OF 15N E OF 71W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL/HUFFMAN