000 AGXX40 KNHC 011816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF TODAY AND FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 27N E OF 87W. OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 26N THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW NORTH ATLC... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 27N THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TO ALONG 29N INTO THURSDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DEPENDS ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY POSITIONED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THAT HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED THEN INTO THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC LATE WED AND THU AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FRI WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES A WEAKER PERTURBATION FAIRLY NEAR THE SAME TRACK...ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER IN INTENSITY. GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...FUTURE INTERACTION WITH ISLANDS AND POTENTIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER HISPANIOLA WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC MAKEUP AND MARINE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AFTER THE 36-48 HOUR PERIOD. OTHERWISE SEAS BUILD WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NE SEMICIRCLE TO 15 FT AS IT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE W-NW SKIRTING THE NE CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BEYOND LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 01/1256 UTC CAPTURED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITHIN 330 NM OF THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW. WHILE NO CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT IN THIS MORNING'S RECON FLIGHT...THIS LOW MAINTAINS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER QUIET WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS EASTERLY TRADES INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BETWEEN 70W-75W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER HUFFMAN