000
AGXX40 KNHC 311841
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON 
AND TUE. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.

SW N ATLC...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ALONG 29N THROUGH TUE WHEN IT 
WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N TUE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DEPENDS ON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THAT HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CURRENTLY 
JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO  
BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...THEN 
INTO THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS WED AND THU. THE ECMWF 
BRINGS THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF 
THE AREA N OF HISPANIOLA THU. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE 
YUCATAN TONIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN TUE. LOW PRESSURE JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS 
WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT...THEN INTO 
THE E CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. THIS LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE 
SYSTEM...AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.
 
SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER AL