000 AGXX40 KNHC 301822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN...THEN ACROSS THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE MON BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT SQUALLY WEATHER NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. REGARDLESS...IT WILL STILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE YUCATAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...GULF OF HONDURAS AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MAINLY E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE 10-15 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN SUN BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO FAR SE MEXICO...BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. EASTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN UNTIL TUE INTO WED AS A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE REACHING FROM 20N53W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N50W APPROACHES. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND DEEPEN THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CARRYING IT OFF TO THE WNW THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN AND ISLANDS LATE TUE AND WED. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A MUCH WEAKER SCENARIO. AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT SQUALLY CONDITIONS NEAR THE WAVE AND LOW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 15 FT BY EARLY TUE. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MON PRODUCING MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-3 FT N OF 27N. ON TUE...THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE S-SW. A BELT OF FRESH E-SE TRADES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE TUE AS A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRES SYSTEM (AS DESCRIBED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION ABOVE) APPROACH FROM THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN/ NW TROPICAL N ATLC AREA ENTERING THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST N ATLC WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY