000 AGXX40 KNHC 300654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DON WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 30/0300 UTC. THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INLAND. WINDS ARE ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASING. SURFACE DATA AND BUOYS ARE SHOWING SE TO S WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST AND SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF LATE SUN INTO MON MOVING WWD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE NORTH WATERS. SW N ATLC... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MON PRODUCING MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT N OF 27N. ON TUE...THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE S AND SW. A BELT OF FRESH E TO SE TRADES WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY S OF 25N WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WILL EXTEND INTO FAR SE PORTIONS TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN MON. A WEAK LOW PRES IS NOTED OVER TH SW CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. EXPECT MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. FRESH TRADES ARE DOMINATING THE TROPICAL N ATLC AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 45W. A WELL-DEFINED LLVL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NOTED ALONG THE S END OF WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N45W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE VERY LOW IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. BASED ON THE LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MON. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE/LOW. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR