000 AGXX40 KNHC 291903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DON NOW MOVING W-NW AT 14 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS AND S OF DON...WHILE SQUALLS CONTINUE TO SPREAD N AND NW WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CORE CIRCULATION...INDICATING THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE PBL. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS NE QUAD WITH LIMITED WIND AND WAVE FIELD ACROSS SW SEMICIRCLE. SE WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT ALONG THE S TEXAS COAST BEFORE DROPPING BELOW THESE HIGH SEAS THRESHOLDS AROUND 12Z. TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS. SW N ATLC... SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 30N...WITH WEAK HIGH CELL ALONG 27N. THIS WEAK RIDGE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON. A BELT OF FRESH E TO SE TRADES REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY S OF 25N WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. NORTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE...AND ACROSS SE PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AND THEN TROUGH THE SRN CORRIDOR OF FRESH WINDS THROUGH MON. SAL AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS MOISTURE ACROSS S PORTIONS THROUGH MON NIGHT...AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W FLARING NICELY UNDER MILD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE A MONSOONAL LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW CARIB WITH VERY DEEP AND ACTIVE CNVTN. WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN 36-48 HOURS...AND HELP TO NUDGE THE LOW WWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT AHEAD OF WAVE AND N OF LOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEHIND WAVE NEXT 24-26 HOURS. THIS TO LEAVE MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TRADES ARE DOMINATING THE TROPICAL N ATLC AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 42/43W. A WELL-DEFINED LLVL CYCLONIC CENTER IS NOTED IN STLT IMAGERY ALONG THE S END OF NEAR 10N41.8W. DESPITE SAL EVIDENT ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS WAVE AND AHEAD OF IT TO THE W...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE REASONABLE CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT WAS SOMEWHAT FAST IN WWD PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE...AND USED A GFS/UKMET BLEND FOR MY MORNING FORECASTS. HOWEVER...A SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD SEEM IN ORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A NW MOTION OF A VORTEX BEFORE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN...AND THEN ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. TROUGH MOVING OFF THE E COAST WEAKENS ATLC LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING AND COULD ALLOW STRONG RECURVATURE. EXPECT 20-25 KT ACROSS N SEMICIRCLE OF THIS WAVE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THEN INCREASING TO 30 KT OR MORE BEYOND 36 HOURS...WITH WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIB EARLY TUE. BEARS WATCHING! WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 28N. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING