000 AGXX40 KNHC 290725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DON CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW AT 12 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN AROUND 120 NM S OF CENTER. WIND FIELD OF DON REMAINS SMALL AND COMPACT AND IS NOT GENERATING A LARGE WAVE FIELD. MOST OF THE WAVE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SEAS UP TO 14-15 FT WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE LATEST ADVISORY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES GMZ080 AND GMZ082 TODAY AND TONIGHT. SW N ATLC... SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 30N AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON. A BELT OF FRESH E TO SE TRADES IS NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAINLY S OF 25N WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. THE NORTHERN END OF A THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W/70W IS AFFECTING THE SE PART OF THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT MORNING. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 27N DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NW CARIB AS TROPICAL CYCLONE DON CONTINUES TO MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W S OF 23N WILL CONTINUE W REACHING 75W TONIGHT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE CAN BE FOUND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE. FRESH TRADES ARE DOMINATING THE TROPICAL N ATLC AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 37W/38W. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS LOCATED ABOUT 1O40 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MARINE GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS ON INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 28N GMZ080. .GMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 24N E OF 94 GMZ082. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR