000 AGXX40 KNHC 271900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO S CENTRAL GULF WITH ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST OFF NE TIP OF YUCATAN PENINSULA...MOVING NW AROUND 10 KT. SEVERAL SHIP OBS THIS MORNING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH 20 KT. SATELLITE SIGNATURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND CANCUN RADAR NOW SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING AND THIS FEATURE LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON. HURRICANE RECON CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE ALL MOVES THIS LOW OFF TO THE NW AND INLAND ACROSS TEXAS OR NEAR TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER BY 72 HRS. WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND WARM SST'S THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONG T.S. BUT CURRENTLY SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO 66 KT AT 72 HRS AS IT MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...WE ALL KNOW HOW QUICKLY GULF SYSTEMS CAN BLOW UP SO CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH THIS FORECAST. REFER TO LATEST STATEMENTS FROM NHC WEB SITE. THUS FAR THIS APPEARS TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO INITIALLY REMAIN WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. CURRENT OFFSHORE AND HSF DO NOT ADDRESS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS. USED ECMWF WINDS AND WAVES TO NUDGE FORECAST AS THIS TRAJECTORY WAS MORE IN LINE WITH INITIAL TC FORECASTS. SW N ATLC... SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 29N/30N. UPPER LOW ALONG E COAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND ALLOW MOIST SELY LLVL FLOW TO INITIATE NUMEROUS CNVTN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AND NEAR 20 KT S THROUGH SW OF BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LEADING LLVL TROUGH MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE E CARIB TO ENHANCE WINDS S OF 22N NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN SEAS 5-6 FT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE E OF ISLANDS SPREADING NW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO WATERS FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW ALONG TROPICAL WAVE IN FAR NW CARIB DISCUSSED ABOVE IN GLFMEX SECTION...AND WILL BE EXITING THE NW CARIB TONIGHT...BUT WITH TRAILING WEATHER AND CNVTN BANDS SHIFTING NW NEXT 24 HOURS. SELY FLOW AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 6 FT AND GREATER WILL PERSIST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE NEXT FEW DAYS AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. MORNING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR CNVTN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE BETWEEN 13N-18N....WITH THE TWO BUOYS E OF THE ISLANDS HITTING 9 AND 10 FT WITH CNVTN CLUSTERS. SQUALLY WEATHER IS TO BE EXPECTED AS THIS WAVE MOVE W INTO THE CARIB NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND...AND A BROAD WIND SURGE EXPECTED FROM THE E REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING