000 AGXX40 KNHC 261901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GULF IS BEING SQUEEZED FROM THE SE BY APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIB...AND WILL DRIFT NE AND COLLAPSE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WAVE ENTERS THE SE GULF. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEPICTED ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING BY SCATTEROMETER PASSES...WITH S TO SWLY FLOW NEAR 15 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION SINKING INTO NE WATERS ATTM AHEAD OF TROUGH STRUNG OUT ALONG N GULF COAST STATES...WITH THIS WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH WED. TROPICAL WAVE OVER NW CARIB HAS FLARED TODAY UNDERNEATH AN OLD TUTT SEGMENT THAT HAS PINCHED OFF. MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WNW MOTION OF WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND S CENTRAL GULF WED AND THEN SLOWLY ACROSS THE W GULF THU AND FRI. SURFACE REFLECTION OF WAVE NOT AN ELONGATING INVERTED TROUGH AND MAY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED IN WRN GULF AS PER GFS SOLUTION. WITH LIGHT ELY SHEAR ALOFT FORECAST NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THIS WAVE AS MAIN ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS UPPER MEXICO AND S TEXAS. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL ATLC TO S FLORIDA...WITH CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST CREATING INSTABILITY W OF 77W FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS UPPER FEATURE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SIMILAR RESULTS. MOISTURE TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE IN NW CARIB MOVING NW INTO S FLORIDA AND ANDROS ISLAND...WITH LLVL FORCING AIDED BY NEAR 20 KT ESE LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE BAHAMA BANK. THIS TO SHIFT SLOWLY WNW ACROSS THE STRAITS NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW HIGH PRES RIDGE TO SHIFT GRADUALLY N TO 29-30N BY WED EVENING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH FRESH ESE TRADES S OF 22-23N AND ACROSS THE BAHAMA BANK...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. BEST LLVL MOISTURE TO REMAIN AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND AND FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS NW CARIB HAS FLARED UP CONVECTIVELY PAST 12 HOURS UNDERNEATH AN OLD TUTT SEGMENT THAT HAS PINCHED OFF ACROSS NW CARIB AND SW GULF. ATLC RIDGE MAINTAINING FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND LIKELY A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS TO 25 KT. MORNING SEA STATE ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT GFS FORCED WWIII OUTPUT WAY TOO HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH MAX SEAS LIKELY 9 FT...AS OPPOSED TO THE 11 FT FORECAST BY WWIII...AND A BIT TOO FAR N. HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF THE EURO WAVE MODELS AND MORE MODEST SEAS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB...NEAR 8 FT...NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE DEPICTED IN STLT IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES THIS MORNING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH WEAK WINDS...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE RECENT SHIP REPORTS NEAR WAVE NOT INDICATING WINDS AROUND 20 KT...BUT COULD BE CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED. EXPECTED WAVE TO MOVE SLOWLY WNW NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTO YUCATAN LATE TONIGHT WITH MODERATE SE FLOW BUILDING ACROSS NW CARIB BEHIND WAVE...AND MODEST SHRINKING OF 20 KT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB. MOISTURE AND WEATHER WITH WAVE EXPECTED TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF NW CARIB LATE WED AFTERNOON. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG ABOUT 56W HAS ALSO FLARED UNDER THE MID ATLC UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN BOTH HINDCASTS AND FORECASTS...WITH A SECONDARY PERTURBATION FOLLOWING THIS WAVE ABOUT 6 DEGREES TO THE E. BOTH OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE AREA NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTERACT WITH UPPER TROUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEHIND SECOND WAVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. SEAS CURRENTLY 4-6 FT ACROSS THIS ZONE WILL INCREASE TO 5-7 WED NIGHT AND THEN 6-8 FT IN ELY SWELL INTO FRI. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING