000
AGXX40 KNHC 241845
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 28N/29N REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS 
THE N GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE 
CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN/SW N 
ATLC ALONG 71W WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR E GULF TUE 
NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL GULF WED AND THE W GULF THU AND FRI. THIS 
WAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PREVIOUS WAVES AND AS 
SUCH COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT ON THE WINS AND SEAS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GULF. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST BY THE SUITE OF 
NWP MODELS E TO SE WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT S OF 23N 
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE FROM LATE TUE THROUGH THU. THUS WILL 
PLAN TO INCREASE THE WINDS S OF 23N OVER THE PREVIOUS FCST.  

SW N ATLC...
E-W ORIENTED HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N/30N DOMINATES MOST OF THE 
SW N ATLC. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE 
CURRENTLY ALONG 70W/71W EXTENDS UP TO 24N. THIS SEGMENT OF THE
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TUE. PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED 
BETWEEN THE WAVE AND RIDGE THEREBY INCREASING ELY WINDS TO 20-25 
KT S OF 23N. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS OF THE 
SAME WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AT 15 UTC AND A 
MORE RECENT SHIP REPORT NEAR 20N68W AT 18 UTC. THESE WINDS WILL 
TRANSLATE ACROSS AREAS S OF 23N/BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA BY WED. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER 
W OF THE AREA THU AND FRI. 

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... 
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA COMBINED WITH A STRONG 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W/71W IS PRODUCING AN INCREASING COVERAGE
OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND FAR E CUBA WITH THE 
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. THIS WAVE 
HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 20 KT OR SO AS AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE W ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF 
SPEED TO ALONG 76W/77W MON...83W TUE AND W OF THE CARIBBEAN BY 
WED. FRESH E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOST NOTABLY IN FAVORED FUNNELING AREAS JUST S 
OF HISPANIOLA PER AN 1118 UTC WINDSAT AND 1404 UTC ASCAT PASS.
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE 
WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE BUT REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY FROM 11N TO 
18N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W WITH SOME 20 KT WINDS FORECAST TO OCCUR 
ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AND POSSIBLY THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL.  

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.
 
SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER COBB