000 AGXX40 KNHC 231854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N MAINTAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS N OF 28N WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS COVER S OF 28N. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE SQUEEZE PRES GRADIENT PROMPTING FRESH S-SE BREEZE W OF 96W TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH MON AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND. RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 27N THROUGH WED WHEN STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...APPROACHES SE PART OF CENTRAL GULF. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30N AS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EXTREME SE PART OF ZONE TONIGHT AND SUN. TROPICAL WAVE COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTEN BETWEEN WAVE AND RIDGE INCREASING WINDS S OF 24N. WAVE OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVE THROUGH SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON NIGHT AND BE W OF AREA LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER GREATER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO CLOSELY INTERACT WITH TROPICAL WAVE NOW APPROACHING EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DEEP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION OF WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH ITS PATH ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN ZONE. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS MAY TURN WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HRS. BUT EVEN IF IT DOES NOT...NUMEROUS HEAVY CONVECTION EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SUN WITH ATTENDANT FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SYSTEM MOVE W-NW INTO EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA MON AND TUE AND EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF BASIN WED. WIND AND SEAS ABATE AFTER WAVE PASSAGE UNTIL REBUILDING CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES TIGHTENS GRADIENT WED AND BEYOND. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES