000 AGXX40 KNHC 210819 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2011 CORRECTED WINDS UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1015 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N88W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUING TO ALLOW FOR RATHER QUIET WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. N OF THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN AND MIDDLE GULF SECTIONS THE BUOYS ARE REPORTING S-W WINDS OF 5-10 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF W OF 93W WHERE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT AND 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 27N. BUOYS IN THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE GULF ARE REPORTING SW-W WINDS OF 5 KT N AND NE OF THE HIGH CENTER...AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT S OF THE HIGH WITH A LITTLE OF AN E-SE COMPONENT IN THE FAR SE PORTION. BUOYS AND THE LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION N OF ABOUT 24N WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER...IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE DUE THE STRONGER SLY FLOW THERE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 26N85W IN 24 HOURS..THEN BE REPLACED BY THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 28N FRI THROUGH MON. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 23N TO 27N AND W OF 94W THROUGH LATE SAT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT THERE WILL LAST THROUGH SUN...THEN DECREASE TO 2-3 FT MON. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.8N 72.6W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT PER NHC ADVISORY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41048 N OF THE AREA AT 32N69.7W SHOW SW WINDS OF 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...WHILE SHIP "WPGK" AT 32N72W HAD SW WINDS NEAR 35 KT AND SEAS UP TO 13 FT. CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF BRET TOWARDS 30N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS JUST OVER THE SE EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION INDICATED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND... STILL CAN SEE THAT SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE IMPACTING THE FORECAST WATERS IN THE AREA OF THE CONVECTION. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO S FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 22N. WITH THIS PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SE-S S OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW N OF THE RIDGE OUTSIDE THE 20 KT WINDS LEFT BEHIND FROM BRET. AN AREA OF E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IS S OF 22N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W AS SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0236 UTC LAST NIGHT. SEAS AS REPORTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT N OF RIDGE BETWEEN 69W-76W OUTSIDE THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW 20 KT WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE. SEAS S OF THE RIDGE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT...EXCEPT S OF 22N BETWEEN 69W-73W AND W OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE LOWER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT ARE NOTED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HAITI IS MOVING WNW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ATTRIBUTED TO THIS FEATURE MAY MOVE NW THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE...BUT BRING LITTLE INCREASE TO ALREADY PRESENT WIND CONDITIONS DESCRIBED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY INCREASE WITH SOME WITH THIS TROUGH LATER TODAY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... PRESENTLY...NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE...AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE PRESENT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 13.5N79W IS MOVING W AT 16 KT. THE WAVE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. IT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO JUST E OF NE NICARAGUA EARLY TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON FRI. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH GOOD TRACK HISTORY IS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE ALONG 45W/46W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY FRI...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THAT ZONE INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY ON SAT. THE WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SAT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE DURATION AND LARGE FETCH AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 12 OR 13 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE