000 AGXX40 KNHC 200749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1015 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N87W AT 0600 UTC PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING LIGHT SE-S WINDS OF 5-10 KT...WHILE BUOYS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF ARE REPORTING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT. IN THE SW GULF ZONE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE THEY ARE NE-E AT 10-15 KT. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THEY ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON THU. EXPECT SEAS THERE TO BUILD UP 3-6 FT DURING THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS NEAR 30.6N 75.0W AT 0900 UTC MOVING NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. BRET PRESENTLY HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHERE WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT...45 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 25 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM EXHIBITING A COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2220 LAST NIGHT SHOWED A RADII OF 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII REACHING TO WITHIN 210 NM OF BRET IN THE SE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 75-90 NM ELSEWHERE OF BRET. AS BRET WEAKENS THE 12 FT RADII WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRACT. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS OVER BRET SHOWED MAXIMUM SEAS OF 13 FT JUST SE OF THE CENTER...BUT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 0300 UTC NHC ADVISORY HAS THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF BRET WEAKENING TO 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT LATER THIS MORNING...TO MINIMAL TROPICAL INTENSITY BY THU MORNING...AND TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU EVENING. ASSOCIATED WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION TO BRET...THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 21N. ASIDE FROM THE ELSEWHERE WINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH BRET...CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE WINDS ARE VARIABLE 5-10 KT BUT AT TIMES IN A SE-S DIRECTION...AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A FLUCTUATING TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS ALL ALLOWING FOR 15-20 KT WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WIND DIRECTION IS E-SE S OF THE RIDGE E OF 76W...N-NE ELSEWHERE W OF BRET...AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT S OF 26N W OF 76W. OUTSIDE THE 12 FT RADII WITH BRET...SEAS AS NOTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-78W...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 27N. SEAS S OF 27N ARE 3-5 FT FROM 22N TO 27N...5-7 FT S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NE OF HISPANIOLA IS MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE PORTION SHOULD MORPH INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS BEFORE IT BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ATTENDED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... PRESENTLY...WINDS NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE...AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE PRESENT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO NE COLOMBIA IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 78W TONIGHT...TO NEAR 84W N 48 HOURS THEN MOVE W OF THE CARIBBEAN LATE FRI INTO SAT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH GOOD TRACK HISTORY IS E OF THE REGION ALONG 41W/42W S OF 18N ALSO MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON THU AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE ZONE INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE EARLY FRI. THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SAT...THEN ENTER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN. AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE DURATION AND LARGE FETCH AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 12 OR 13 FT FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W... CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 200749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1015 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N87W AT 0600 UTC PROVIDING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING LIGHT SE-S WINDS OF 5-10 KT...WHILE BUOYS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF ARE REPORTING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT. IN THE SW GULF ZONE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE THEY ARE NE-E AT 10-15 KT. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THEY ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON THU. EXPECT SEAS THERE TO BUILD UP 3-6 FT DURING THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS NEAR 30.6N 75.0W AT 0900 UTC MOVING NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 KT PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. BRET PRESENTLY HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHERE WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT...45 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 25 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM EXHIBITING A COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2220 LAST NIGHT SHOWED A RADII OF 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII REACHING TO WITHIN 210 NM OF BRET IN THE SE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 75-90 NM ELSEWHERE OF BRET. AS BRET WEAKENS THE 12 FT RADII WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRACT. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS OVER BRET SHOWED MAXIMUM SEAS OF 13 FT JUST SE OF THE CENTER...BUT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE 0300 UTC NHC ADVISORY HAS THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF BRET WEAKENING TO 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT LATER THIS MORNING...TO MINIMAL TROPICAL INTENSITY BY THU MORNING...AND TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU EVENING. ASSOCIATED WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION TO BRET...THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 21N. ASIDE FROM THE ELSEWHERE WINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH BRET...CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE WINDS ARE VARIABLE 5-10 KT BUT AT TIMES IN A SE-S DIRECTION...AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A FLUCTUATING TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS ALL ALLOWING FOR 15-20 KT WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WIND DIRECTION IS E-SE S OF THE RIDGE E OF 76W...N-NE ELSEWHERE W OF BRET...AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT S OF 26N W OF 76W. OUTSIDE THE 12 FT RADII WITH BRET...SEAS AS NOTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-78W...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 27N. SEAS S OF 27N ARE 3-5 FT FROM 22N TO 27N...5-7 FT S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NE OF HISPANIOLA IS MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE PORTION SHOULD MORPH INTO A TROUGH THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS BEFORE IT BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ATTENDED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... PRESENTLY...WINDS NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE...AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE PRESENT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO NE COLOMBIA IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 78W TONIGHT...TO NEAR 84W N 48 HOURS THEN MOVE W OF THE CARIBBEAN LATE FRI INTO SAT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH GOOD TRACK HISTORY IS E OF THE REGION ALONG 41W/42W S OF 18N ALSO MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON THU AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE ZONE INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE EARLY FRI. THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SAT...THEN ENTER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN. AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE DURATION AND LARGE FETCH AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 12 OR 13 FT FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 29N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W... CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE