000 AGXX40 KNHC 190730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING LIGHT S-SW WINDS W OF 91W N OF THE RIDGE... AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS E OF 91W N OF THE RIDGE. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT S OF 25N WHERE E OF 90W WHERE SEAS ARE 2-4 FT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REFORM INTO A 1014 HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDDLE GULF PORTION THROUGH SAT. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES WITH THE SEAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BEGINNING WED NIGHT W OF 94W AND THROUGH FRI AS SLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES INITIALLY ESTABLISHED AT 10-15 KT...THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE NW GULF W OF 94W AND IN THE SW GULF FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS NEAR 28.7N 76.6W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. BRET PRESENTLY HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT IS JUST ABOUT VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0138 UTC LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED A RADII OF 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING TO WITHIN 120 NM OF BRET IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. BASED ON THE DETERIORATING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...THESE WINDS PROBABLY DON'T EXTEND MORE 30-45 NM IN ITS W SEMICIRCLE. AS BRET WEAKENS THE 12 FT RADII WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRACT WITH PRESENT WAVEWATCH MODEL ESTIMATIONS INDICATING THAT THE RADII SHOULD NOW ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER WITHIN ABOUT 45 NM INTO THE E SEMICIRCLE...AND 30 NM INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 16 FT. THE 0300 UTC NHC ADVISORY WEAKENS BRET SLIGHTLY AS IT REACHES NEAR 29.5N 76.1W NEAR DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN TO 30.6N 75.1W EARLY THIS EVENING...TO 31.7N 73.8W BY WED MORNING. BRET WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH LATE FRI. RELATED WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION TO BRET...THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO WESTERN CUBA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST N OF THE AREA TO THE NE OF BRET. ASIDE FROM THE ELSEWHERE WINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH BRET...CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE WINDS ARE VARIABLE 5-10 KT BUT AT TIMES IN A SE-S DIRECTION...AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR 15-20 KT WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WIND DIRECTION IS E-SE S OF THE RIDGE E OF 76W...N-NE ELSEWHERE W OF BRET... AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT S OF 26N W OF 76W. OUTSIDE THE 12 FT RADII WITH BRET...SEAS AS NOTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-78W...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 27N. SEAS S OF 27N ARE 3-5 FT FROM 22N TO 27N...5-7 FT S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH MAY TRAIL TO THE SW FROM BRET TO S FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SE PORTION JUST NE OF HISPANIOLA IS MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A RELATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...AND TO THE SE BAHAMAS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS ATTENDED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... PRESENTLY...WINDS NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...AND TE NW PORTION S OF 18N. HIGHEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE PRESENT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO JUST W OF JAMAICA AND TO NEAR 14N80W IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 85W TONIGHT...AND TO JUST INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WED NIGHT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH GOOD TRACK HISTORY EXTENDS IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG 64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 70W/71W TONIGHT ...NEAR 77W/78W WED NIGHT...THEN INTO THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT. AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...NE-E 20-25 KT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE DURATION AND LARGE FETCH AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 12 OR 13 FT FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W... CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 190730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING LIGHT S-SW WINDS W OF 91W N OF THE RIDGE... AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS E OF 91W N OF THE RIDGE. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT S OF 25N WHERE E OF 90W WHERE SEAS ARE 2-4 FT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REFORM INTO A 1014 HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDDLE GULF PORTION THROUGH SAT. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES WITH THE SEAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BEGINNING WED NIGHT W OF 94W AND THROUGH FRI AS SLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES INITIALLY ESTABLISHED AT 10-15 KT...THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE NW GULF W OF 94W AND IN THE SW GULF FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS NEAR 28.7N 76.6W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. BRET PRESENTLY HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT IS JUST ABOUT VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0138 UTC LATE LAST NIGHT SHOWED A RADII OF 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING TO WITHIN 120 NM OF BRET IN THE SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. BASED ON THE DETERIORATING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...THESE WINDS PROBABLY DON'T EXTEND MORE 30-45 NM IN ITS W SEMICIRCLE. AS BRET WEAKENS THE 12 FT RADII WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRACT WITH PRESENT WAVEWATCH MODEL ESTIMATIONS INDICATING THAT THE RADII SHOULD NOW ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER WITHIN ABOUT 45 NM INTO THE E SEMICIRCLE...AND 30 NM INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 16 FT. THE 0300 UTC NHC ADVISORY WEAKENS BRET SLIGHTLY AS IT REACHES NEAR 29.5N 76.1W NEAR DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN TO 30.6N 75.1W EARLY THIS EVENING...TO 31.7N 73.8W BY WED MORNING. BRET WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH LATE FRI. RELATED WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION TO BRET...THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO WESTERN CUBA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST N OF THE AREA TO THE NE OF BRET. ASIDE FROM THE ELSEWHERE WINDS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH BRET...CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE WINDS ARE VARIABLE 5-10 KT BUT AT TIMES IN A SE-S DIRECTION...AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR 15-20 KT WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WIND DIRECTION IS E-SE S OF THE RIDGE E OF 76W...N-NE ELSEWHERE W OF BRET... AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT S OF 26N W OF 76W. OUTSIDE THE 12 FT RADII WITH BRET...SEAS AS NOTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS THROUGHOUT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 74W-78W...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 27N. SEAS S OF 27N ARE 3-5 FT FROM 22N TO 27N...5-7 FT S OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. A TROUGH MAY TRAIL TO THE SW FROM BRET TO S FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR SE PORTION JUST NE OF HISPANIOLA IS MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A RELATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...AND TO THE SE BAHAMAS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS ATTENDED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... PRESENTLY...WINDS NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...AND TE NW PORTION S OF 18N. HIGHEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE PRESENT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO JUST W OF JAMAICA AND TO NEAR 14N80W IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 85W TONIGHT...AND TO JUST INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WED NIGHT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH GOOD TRACK HISTORY EXTENDS IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG 64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 70W/71W TONIGHT ...NEAR 77W/78W WED NIGHT...THEN INTO THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT. AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...NE-E 20-25 KT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE DURATION AND LARGE FETCH AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 12 OR 13 FT FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W... CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE