000 AGXX40 KNHC 180735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE U.S SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. IT IS MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA... AND CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING LIGHT S-SW WINDS W OF 91W N OF THE RIDGE..AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS E OF 91W N OF THE RIDGE. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS CAME IN WITH NE-E 15 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION. IN ADDITION...BUOY 42055 AT 22N94W HAS RECENTLY REPORTED...AND IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT S OF 26N WHERE SEAS ARE 2-4 FT AND 3-5 FT IN THE SW GULF. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH EARLY MUCH OF TUE BEFORE IS REFORMS INTO A 1014 HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDDLE GULF PORTION THROUGH FRI. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF 26N IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES WITH THE SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS LOWER IN THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH WED...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BEGINNING LATE WED AND THROUGH FRI AS SLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES INITIALLY ESTABLISHED AT 10-15 KT...THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE WED IN THE NW GULF S OF 27N W OF 94W AND IN THE SW GULF N OF 21N W OF 95W THU AND FRI. SW N ATLC... RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS NEAR 27.5N 78.0W AT 0300 UTC PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY MOVING SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW INCREASING STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN 120 NM OF BRET IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN ABOUT A 120 NM OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WIND FIELD IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. BRET IS FORECAST TO TURN N WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 27.7N 78.0W MON MORNING...THEN TURN MORE TO THE NE AS IT NEARS 28.5N 77.4W EARLY MON EVENING...TO 29.7N 76.7W TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES 30.7N 75.5W EARLY TUE EVENING BEFORE MOVING N OF AREA WED. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION. IN ADDITION TO BRET...THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA...NE OF BRET. ASIDE FROM WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. WIND DIRECTION IS E-SE EXCEPT W OF BRET NE-E. A SWATH OF NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 21N AND E OF 71W. SEAS AS NOTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS IN THE AREA ARE NOTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 27N E OF 76W...3-5 FT S OF 27N E OF 74W AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. AS BRET TRACKS NE WITH TIME...A POSSIBLE TRAILING TROUGH MAY EXTEND BACK TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W PRESENTLY...WINDS NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...IN THE NW PORTION S OF 18N WITH HIGHER WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT ...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN A NE SWELL ARE SEEN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 76W TUE...AND W OF THE AREA WED. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND ALONG WITH INCREASING E WINDS OF THE RANGE 15-20 KT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 54W MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC THIS MORNING...MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA FRI. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY AN EXPANDING AREA OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W... CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 180735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE U.S SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. IT IS MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA... AND CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING LIGHT S-SW WINDS W OF 91W N OF THE RIDGE..AND LIGHT NE-E WINDS E OF 91W N OF THE RIDGE. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE LIGHT NE-E WINDS ARE REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS CAME IN WITH NE-E 15 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION. IN ADDITION...BUOY 42055 AT 22N94W HAS RECENTLY REPORTED...AND IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT S OF 26N WHERE SEAS ARE 2-4 FT AND 3-5 FT IN THE SW GULF. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH EARLY MUCH OF TUE BEFORE IS REFORMS INTO A 1014 HIGH CENTER OVER THE MIDDLE GULF PORTION THROUGH FRI. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF 26N IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES WITH THE SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS LOWER IN THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH WED...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BEGINNING LATE WED AND THROUGH FRI AS SLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES INITIALLY ESTABLISHED AT 10-15 KT...THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE WED IN THE NW GULF S OF 27N W OF 94W AND IN THE SW GULF N OF 21N W OF 95W THU AND FRI. SW N ATLC... RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS NEAR 27.5N 78.0W AT 0300 UTC PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY MOVING SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW INCREASING STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN 120 NM OF BRET IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN ABOUT A 120 NM OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WIND FIELD IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. BRET IS FORECAST TO TURN N WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 27.7N 78.0W MON MORNING...THEN TURN MORE TO THE NE AS IT NEARS 28.5N 77.4W EARLY MON EVENING...TO 29.7N 76.7W TUE MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACHES 30.7N 75.5W EARLY TUE EVENING BEFORE MOVING N OF AREA WED. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FOR FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY INFORMATION. IN ADDITION TO BRET...THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA...NE OF BRET. ASIDE FROM WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. WIND DIRECTION IS E-SE EXCEPT W OF BRET NE-E. A SWATH OF NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 21N AND E OF 71W. SEAS AS NOTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS IN THE AREA ARE NOTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 27N E OF 76W...3-5 FT S OF 27N E OF 74W AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. AS BRET TRACKS NE WITH TIME...A POSSIBLE TRAILING TROUGH MAY EXTEND BACK TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W PRESENTLY...WINDS NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...IN THE NW PORTION S OF 18N WITH HIGHER WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT ...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN A NE SWELL ARE SEEN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 76W TUE...AND W OF THE AREA WED. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND ALONG WITH INCREASING E WINDS OF THE RANGE 15-20 KT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 54W MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC THIS MORNING...MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA FRI. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY AN EXPANDING AREA OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W... CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE