000 AGXX40 KNHC 170746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND CONTINUES TO BRING RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING LIGHT S-SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE W OF 90W..AND LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE E OF 90W. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE LIGHT E-SE WINDS ARE REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT E OF ABOUT 94W AND BUOY 42055 AT 22N94W IS REPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT S OF THE RIDGE IN THE SW GULF WHERE THE STRONGER E WINDS HAVE BUILD THE SEAS INTO THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST THAT BEGINS TO BUILD SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE NE PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT MON NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES WITH THE SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS LOWER IN THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU...BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NW GULF W OF 94W MON NIGHT AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT AND TO 15-20 KT BY THU. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO TONIGHT INTO MON. VERY STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 92W WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH MON MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EVIDENT IN THE SW GULF E OF 94W...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SW N ATLC... THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 25N...WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALONG 28N W OF 65W...AND TO A 1015 MB LOW E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28.5N79W MOVING SLOWLY S. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE LOW AND FRONT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...WHILE TO THE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRES IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT PRIMARILY E OF 77W. ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE...LIGHT S-SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND IN A 0218 UTC PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. SEAS AS NOTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS IN THE AREA ARE NOTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 27N E OF 76W...3-5 FT S OF 27N E OF 74W AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PUSHES BACK TO THE N. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK MORE TO THE W AND NW MON AND MON NIGHT AND TURN NE TUE BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. THE HURRICANE BAM MODELS TAKE THE LOW MORE TO THE SW AND W TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. WILL FORECAST LOW TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN CARRY A TROUGH FEATURE EXTENDING TO PART OF CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TUE INTO WED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS FEATURE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEW INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO MON...AND TO 5-10 KT MON NIGHT AND TUE BEFORE SHIFTING TO S-SW TUE THROUGH THU TO THE N OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W PRESENTLY...WINDS NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...IN THE NW PORTION S OF 18N WITH HIGHER WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT ...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN A NE SWELL ARE SEEN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 61.5W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA TUE AND ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND ALONG WITH INCREASING E WINDS OF THE RANGE 15-20 KT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 50W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN INCREASING NE-E TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 8 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 170746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND CONTINUES TO BRING RATHER TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF BUOYS ARE REPORTING LIGHT S-SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE W OF 90W..AND LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE E OF 90W. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE LIGHT E-SE WINDS ARE REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT E OF ABOUT 94W AND BUOY 42055 AT 22N94W IS REPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT S OF THE RIDGE IN THE SW GULF WHERE THE STRONGER E WINDS HAVE BUILD THE SEAS INTO THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT. THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST THAT BEGINS TO BUILD SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF THROUGH...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT IN THE NE PORTION OF THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT MON NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES WITH THE SEAS THROUGH MON NIGHT. SEAS LOWER IN THE SW GULF TUE THROUGH THU...BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NW GULF W OF 94W MON NIGHT AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT AND TO 15-20 KT BY THU. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO TONIGHT INTO MON. VERY STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 92W WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH MON MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EVIDENT IN THE SW GULF E OF 94W...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SW N ATLC... THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 25N...WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALONG 28N W OF 65W...AND TO A 1015 MB LOW E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28.5N79W MOVING SLOWLY S. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE LOW AND FRONT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...WHILE TO THE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE TIGHTER GRADIENT THERE BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRES IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT PRIMARILY E OF 77W. ELSEWHERE N OF THE RIDGE...LIGHT S-SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND IN A 0218 UTC PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. SEAS AS NOTED BY BOTH BUOYS AND SHIPS IN THE AREA ARE NOTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT N OF 27N E OF 76W...3-5 FT S OF 27N E OF 74W AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PUSHES BACK TO THE N. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO TRACK MORE TO THE W AND NW MON AND MON NIGHT AND TURN NE TUE BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. THE HURRICANE BAM MODELS TAKE THE LOW MORE TO THE SW AND W TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. WILL FORECAST LOW TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN CARRY A TROUGH FEATURE EXTENDING TO PART OF CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TUE INTO WED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS FEATURE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STAY TUNED FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEW INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT INTO MON...AND TO 5-10 KT MON NIGHT AND TUE BEFORE SHIFTING TO S-SW TUE THROUGH THU TO THE N OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W PRESENTLY...WINDS NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...IN THE NW PORTION S OF 18N WITH HIGHER WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT...NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT ...EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 6-9 FT ARE POSSIBLE AND S OF 11N W OF 75W WHERE SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN A NE SWELL ARE SEEN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 61.5W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA TUE AND ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THE WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND ALONG WITH INCREASING E WINDS OF THE RANGE 15-20 KT. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 50W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONE THROUGH MON NIGHT AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. THIS WAVE WILL USHER IN INCREASING NE-E TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 8 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE