000 AGXX40 KNHC 161036 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 635 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 UPDATED SW N ATLC TO INCLUDE MENTION OF RECENT FORMED LOW PRES MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AS SEEN BY THE LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND AS INDICATED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE S OF THE RIDGE. FORESEEABLE FUTURE CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME WILL BE SEEN AS STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST BEGINS TO SURGE SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF TODAY...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING TO NE IN DIRECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS SHOULD ONLY BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN MON AS WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT SW-W IN DIRECTION AND LASTING THROUGH THU. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPCOMING OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. THE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THOSE AREAS. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER W AND INLAND MEXICO LATER ON MON EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH. SW N ATLC...UPDATED THE 0900 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM A PSN ALONG 29N65W TO 29N72W AND NW TO A NEWLY FORMED 1013 MB LOW AT 31N80.5W ( AS PRESENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR NE FLORIDA SUGGEST). THE FRONT CONTINUES W TO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA REACHING TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE N OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE S OF THE FRONT W OF ABOUT 72W...AND SW-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE E OF 72W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONT AS REPORTED BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS AND AS PARTIALLY SHOWN BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT W OF 72W...AND 3-5 FT E OF 72W. HIGH PRES SURGING SOUTHWARD TO THE N OF THE FRONT AND LOW IS CREATING A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN NE-E 20 KT WINDS AS REPORTED BY BUOYS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS ALONG 30N. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS CORROBORATED THESE REPORTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT...THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY A FEW SHIPS IN THE SE PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT PORTION E OF ABOUT 74W WILL SAG A LITTLE TO THE S THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME. THE PORTION W OF 74W WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT ON SUN WHILE THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES SE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY IN SSE THROUGH SUN EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSING SWD...BUT THE MODELS INITIALIZE THE LOW PSN A LITTLE TO THE S OF WHERE IT IS BEING OBSERVED. THE UKMET/NOGAPS AND CMC HINT AT IT BY WAY OF INDICATING A TROUGH NEAR WHERE THE LOW IS PRESENTLY SPOTTED WHEREAS THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SHOW A FAINT CIRCULATION BUT ABOUT 60 NM SE OF THE PRESENT LOCATION. WILL UPDATE PREVIOUS MENTION OF TROUGH TO LOW...AND FOLLOW GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO MOTION OF THE LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL FORECAST THE LOW TO TRACK BACK TO THE W TOWARDS N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MAY WELL BE THE OUTLIERS IN SHOWING THE FEATURE AS A LOW ONCE IT MOVES BACK TOWARDS FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...AND SO IT MAY VERY WELL BE A TROUGH FEATURE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST. WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT THE GFS CARRY A 1011 TO 1012 MB LOW NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST LATE TUE INTO WED AFTER ITS SHOWS THIS PRESENT LOW APPROACHING NE FLORIDA. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE ALREADY INTRODUCED THE LOW ON MANUAL GRAPHICS THROUGH 36 HOURS. RELATED WORDING HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOSING ITS IDENTITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK BACK W...EXPECT THE NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND LOW TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON WHILE VEERING TO THE SE-S AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO SW LATE TUE THROUGH WED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION N OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AS IT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THOSE LAND AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE PRETTY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE E 15 KT. A WEAK 1008 MB IS ANALYZED JUST ALONG THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0236 UTC. HOWEVER...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT...5-10 KT. THE LOW SITS ON THE EASTERN TIP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W S OF 15N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WITH WITH THIS CURRENT MOTION...THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SUN AND MON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE-E TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 161036 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 635 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 UPDATED SW N ATLC TO INCLUDE MENTION OF RECENT FORMED LOW PRES MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AS SEEN BY THE LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND AS INDICATED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE S OF THE RIDGE. FORESEEABLE FUTURE CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME WILL BE SEEN AS STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST BEGINS TO SURGE SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF TODAY...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING TO NE IN DIRECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS SHOULD ONLY BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN MON AS WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT SW-W IN DIRECTION AND LASTING THROUGH THU. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPCOMING OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. THE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THOSE AREAS. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER W AND INLAND MEXICO LATER ON MON EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH. SW N ATLC...UPDATED THE 0900 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM A PSN ALONG 29N65W TO 29N72W AND NW TO A NEWLY FORMED 1013 MB LOW AT 31N80.5W ( AS PRESENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR NE FLORIDA SUGGEST). THE FRONT CONTINUES W TO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA REACHING TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE N OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE S OF THE FRONT W OF ABOUT 72W...AND SW-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE E OF 72W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONT AS REPORTED BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS AND AS PARTIALLY SHOWN BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT W OF 72W...AND 3-5 FT E OF 72W. HIGH PRES SURGING SOUTHWARD TO THE N OF THE FRONT AND LOW IS CREATING A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN NE-E 20 KT WINDS AS REPORTED BY BUOYS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS ALONG 30N. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS CORROBORATED THESE REPORTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT...THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY A FEW SHIPS IN THE SE PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT PORTION E OF ABOUT 74W WILL SAG A LITTLE TO THE S THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME. THE PORTION W OF 74W WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT ON SUN WHILE THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES SE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY IN SSE THROUGH SUN EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSING SWD...BUT THE MODELS INITIALIZE THE LOW PSN A LITTLE TO THE S OF WHERE IT IS BEING OBSERVED. THE UKMET/NOGAPS AND CMC HINT AT IT BY WAY OF INDICATING A TROUGH NEAR WHERE THE LOW IS PRESENTLY SPOTTED WHEREAS THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SHOW A FAINT CIRCULATION BUT ABOUT 60 NM SE OF THE PRESENT LOCATION. WILL UPDATE PREVIOUS MENTION OF TROUGH TO LOW...AND FOLLOW GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO MOTION OF THE LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL FORECAST THE LOW TO TRACK BACK TO THE W TOWARDS N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MAY WELL BE THE OUTLIERS IN SHOWING THE FEATURE AS A LOW ONCE IT MOVES BACK TOWARDS FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...AND SO IT MAY VERY WELL BE A TROUGH FEATURE AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST. WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT THAT THE GFS CARRY A 1011 TO 1012 MB LOW NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST LATE TUE INTO WED AFTER ITS SHOWS THIS PRESENT LOW APPROACHING NE FLORIDA. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE ALREADY INTRODUCED THE LOW ON MANUAL GRAPHICS THROUGH 36 HOURS. RELATED WORDING HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOSING ITS IDENTITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK BACK W...EXPECT THE NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND LOW TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON WHILE VEERING TO THE SE-S AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO SW LATE TUE THROUGH WED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION N OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AS IT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THOSE LAND AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE PRETTY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE E 15 KT. A WEAK 1008 MB IS ANALYZED JUST ALONG THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0236 UTC. HOWEVER...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT...5-10 KT. THE LOW SITS ON THE EASTERN TIP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W S OF 15N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WITH WITH THIS CURRENT MOTION...THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SUN AND MON...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE-E TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE