000 AGXX40 KNHC 160730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AS SEEN BY THE LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND AS INDICATED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE S OF THE RIDGE. FORESEEABLE FUTURE CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME WILL BE SEEN AS STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST BEGINS TO SURGE SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF TODAY...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING TO NE IN DIRECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS SHOULD ONLY BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN MON AS WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT SW-W IN DIRECTION AND LASTING THROUGH THU. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPCOMING OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. THE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THOSE AREAS. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER W AND INLAND MEXICO LATER ON MON EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM A PSN ALONG 29N65W TO 29N72W AND NW TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE N OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE S OF THE FRONT W OF ABOUT 72W...AND SW-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE E OF 72W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONT AS REPORTED BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS AND AS PARTIALLY SHOWN BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT W OF 72W...AND 3-5 FT E OF 72W. HIGH PRES BUILDING S TO THE N OF THE FRONT IS CREATING A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN NE-E 20 KT WINDS AS REPORTED BY BUOYS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS ALONG 30N. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS CORROBORATED THESE REPORTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT...THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY A FEW SHIPS IN THE SE PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG A LITTLE TO THE S THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKENED IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW PRES OR TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA NE AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT AND DRIFT IT IN WESTERLY MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MATERIALIZE ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. MOVES OFFSHORE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS MORE PERSISTENT IN CARRYING A 1011 TO 1012 MB LOW NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST LATE TUE INTO WED. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE TROUGH FEATURE IN MANUAL GRAPHICS AS WELL REFER TO THE TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. AND FLORIDA COAST IN THE ACTUAL TEXT PRODUCT. WILL KEEP IN MIND THAT IF IT EVOLVES MORE INTO A LOW WILL THEN SWITCH WORDING TO LOW PRES INSTEAD OF TROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR NE FLORIDA IT MAY BE APPARENT THAT A WEAK LOW IS FORMING THERE. WILL WATCH FOR MORE OF THESE OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF THEY IN DEED SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE. WITH THE FRONTAL WEAKENING AND FORMATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH OR LOW...EXPECT THE NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON WHILE VEERING TO THE SE-S AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO SW LATE TUE THROUGH WED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION N OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AS IT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THOSE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE PRETTY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE E 15 KT. A WEAK 1008 MB IS ANALYZED JUST ALONG THE NE COAST OF COSAT RICA AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0236 UTC. HOWEVER...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT...5-10 KT. THE LOW SITS ON THE EASTERN TIP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W S OF 15N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WITH THE CURRENT MOTION...THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AND THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA TUE AND WED FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE-E TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 160730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AS SEEN BY THE LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND AS INDICATED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE S OF THE RIDGE. FORESEEABLE FUTURE CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME WILL BE SEEN AS STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST BEGINS TO SURGE SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF TODAY...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING TO NE IN DIRECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS SHOULD ONLY BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN MON AS WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT SW-W IN DIRECTION AND LASTING THROUGH THU. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPCOMING OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. THE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THOSE AREAS. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER W AND INLAND MEXICO LATER ON MON EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM A PSN ALONG 29N65W TO 29N72W AND NW TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE N OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE S OF THE FRONT W OF ABOUT 72W...AND SW-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE E OF 72W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONT AS REPORTED BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS AND AS PARTIALLY SHOWN BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT W OF 72W...AND 3-5 FT E OF 72W. HIGH PRES BUILDING S TO THE N OF THE FRONT IS CREATING A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN NE-E 20 KT WINDS AS REPORTED BY BUOYS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS ALONG 30N. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS CORROBORATED THESE REPORTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT...THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY A FEW SHIPS IN THE SE PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG A LITTLE TO THE S THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKENED IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW PRES OR TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA NE AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT AND DRIFT IT IN WESTERLY MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MATERIALIZE ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. MOVES OFFSHORE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS MORE PERSISTENT IN CARRYING A 1011 TO 1012 MB LOW NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST LATE TUE INTO WED. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE TROUGH FEATURE IN MANUAL GRAPHICS AS WELL REFER TO THE TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. AND FLORIDA COAST IN THE ACTUAL TEXT PRODUCT. WILL KEEP IN MIND THAT IF IT EVOLVES MORE INTO A LOW WILL THEN SWITCH WORDING TO LOW PRES INSTEAD OF TROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR NE FLORIDA IT MAY BE APPARENT THAT A WEAK LOW IS FORMING THERE. WILL WATCH FOR MORE OF THESE OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF THEY IN DEED SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE. WITH THE FRONTAL WEAKENING AND FORMATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH OR LOW...EXPECT THE NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON WHILE VEERING TO THE SE-S AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO SW LATE TUE THROUGH WED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION N OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AS IT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THOSE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE PRETTY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE E 15 KT. A WEAK 1008 MB IS ANALYZED JUST ALONG THE NE COAST OF COSAT RICA AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0236 UTC. HOWEVER...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT...5-10 KT. THE LOW SITS ON THE EASTERN TIP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W S OF 15N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WITH THE CURRENT MOTION...THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AND THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA TUE AND WED FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE-E TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 160730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AS SEEN BY THE LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND AS INDICATED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE S OF THE RIDGE. FORESEEABLE FUTURE CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME WILL BE SEEN AS STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST BEGINS TO SURGE SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF TODAY...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING TO NE IN DIRECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS SHOULD ONLY BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN MON AS WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT SW-W IN DIRECTION AND LASTING THROUGH THU. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPCOMING OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. THE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THOSE AREAS. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER W AND INLAND MEXICO LATER ON MON EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM A PSN ALONG 29N65W TO 29N72W AND NW TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE N OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE S OF THE FRONT W OF ABOUT 72W...AND SW-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE E OF 72W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONT AS REPORTED BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS AND AS PARTIALLY SHOWN BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT W OF 72W...AND 3-5 FT E OF 72W. HIGH PRES BUILDING S TO THE N OF THE FRONT IS CREATING A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN NE-E 20 KT WINDS AS REPORTED BY BUOYS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS ALONG 30N. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS CORROBORATED THESE REPORTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT...THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY A FEW SHIPS IN THE SE PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG A LITTLE TO THE S THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKENED IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW PRES OR TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA NE AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT AND DRIFT IT IN WESTERLY MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MATERIALIZE ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. MOVES OFFSHORE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS MORE PERSISTENT IN CARRYING A 1011 TO 1012 MB LOW NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST LATE TUE INTO WED. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE TROUGH FEATURE IN MANUAL GRAPHICS AS WELL REFER TO THE TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. AND FLORIDA COAST IN THE ACTUAL TEXT PRODUCT. WILL KEEP IN MIND THAT IF IT EVOLVES MORE INTO A LOW WILL THEN SWITCH WORDING TO LOW PRES INSTEAD OF TROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR NE FLORIDA IT MAY BE APPARENT THAT A WEAK LOW IS FORMING THERE. WILL WATCH FOR MORE OF THESE OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF THEY IN DEED SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE. WITH THE FRONTAL WEAKENING AND FORMATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH OR LOW...EXPECT THE NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON WHILE VEERING TO THE SE-S AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO SW LATE TUE THROUGH WED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION N OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AS IT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THOSE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE PRETTY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE E 15 KT. A WEAK 1008 MB IS ANALYZED JUST ALONG THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0236 UTC. HOWEVER...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT...5-10 KT. THE LOW SITS ON THE EASTERN TIP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W S OF 15N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WITH THE CURRENT MOTION...THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AND THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA TUE AND WED FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE-E TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 160730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT AS SEEN BY THE LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND AS INDICATED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE S OF THE RIDGE. FORESEEABLE FUTURE CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER REGIME WILL BE SEEN AS STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC U.S. COAST BEGINS TO SURGE SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF TODAY...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE INCREASING PRES GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS SHIFTING TO NE IN DIRECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SEAS SHOULD ONLY BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN MON AS WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT SW-W IN DIRECTION AND LASTING THROUGH THU. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPCOMING OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. THE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO THOSE AREAS. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER W AND INLAND MEXICO LATER ON MON EXPECT THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM A PSN ALONG 29N65W TO 29N72W AND NW TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE N OF THE RIDGE AND TO THE S OF THE FRONT W OF ABOUT 72W...AND SW-W WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE E OF 72W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONT AS REPORTED BUOYS IN THOSE AREAS AND AS PARTIALLY SHOWN BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT W OF 72W...AND 3-5 FT E OF 72W. HIGH PRES BUILDING S TO THE N OF THE FRONT IS CREATING A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN NE-E 20 KT WINDS AS REPORTED BY BUOYS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS ALONG 30N. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS CORROBORATED THESE REPORTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-7 FT. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT...THE HIGHEST OF THE SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY A FEW SHIPS IN THE SE PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG A LITTLE TO THE S THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SOME. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKENED IN THE FORM OF WEAK LOW PRES OR TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA NE AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT AND DRIFT IT IN WESTERLY MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MATERIALIZE ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. MOVES OFFSHORE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS MORE PERSISTENT IN CARRYING A 1011 TO 1012 MB LOW NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST LATE TUE INTO WED. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE TROUGH FEATURE IN MANUAL GRAPHICS AS WELL REFER TO THE TROUGH OFF THE SE U.S. AND FLORIDA COAST IN THE ACTUAL TEXT PRODUCT. WILL KEEP IN MIND THAT IF IT EVOLVES MORE INTO A LOW WILL THEN SWITCH WORDING TO LOW PRES INSTEAD OF TROUGH. PRESENT INDICATIONS LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER AND NEAR NE FLORIDA IT MAY BE APPARENT THAT A WEAK LOW IS FORMING THERE. WILL WATCH FOR MORE OF THESE OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF THEY IN DEED SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF THIS POSSIBLE FEATURE. WITH THE FRONTAL WEAKENING AND FORMATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH OR LOW...EXPECT THE NE-E 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON WHILE VEERING TO THE SE-S AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO SW LATE TUE THROUGH WED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION N OF THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AS IT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS MOVING W ABOUT 18 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND THOSE LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE 0240 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE PRETTY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE E 15 KT. A WEAK 1008 MB IS ANALYZED JUST ALONG THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA AS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0236 UTC. HOWEVER...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE LIGHT...5-10 KT. THE LOW SITS ON THE EASTERN TIP OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W S OF 15N IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WITH THE CURRENT MOTION...THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AND THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA TUE AND WED FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NE-E TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE