000 AGXX40 KNHC 150739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT DEPICTED BY LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND AS INDICATED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0300 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE S OF THE RIDGE. SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN A SE SWELL ARE BEING REPORTED BY A COUPLE OF SHIPS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THIS MORNING. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SWD FROM 31N67W TO 30N75W AND NW TO SE GEORGIA. SW-W WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ARE EVIDENT N OF THE RIDGE...AND E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS EXIST S OF THE RIDGE. SEAS N OF THE RIDGE RANGE FROM 3-4 FT E OF 70W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 70W. S OF THE RIDGE...SEAS ARE 3-4 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 29N TODAY THROUGH SUN AS THE RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY NWD. STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SWD THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT TO FILTER S INTO THE FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 77W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO MON AS POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES...BUT SUGGEST IT WILL BE IN THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N65W BY TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA S TO 12N81W MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SAT...AND INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA SAT AND SUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE TO OR JUST ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IN ANY EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TSTM ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 46W/47W IS MOVING W AT 17 KT. THIS WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN...AND POSSIBLY REACH THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON AND TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 150739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA NW TO 26N91W AND TO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT DEPICTED BY LIGHT SW-W WINDS N OF THE RIDGE...AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AS REPORTED BY BUOYS THROUGHOUT AND AS INDICATED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0300 UTC THIS MORNING. BUOYS AND LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE RANGE S OF THE RIDGE. SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN A SE SWELL ARE BEING REPORTED BY A COUPLE OF SHIPS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THIS MORNING. SW N ATLC... PRELIMINARY 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA TO S FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DROPPING SWD FROM 31N67W TO 30N75W AND NW TO SE GEORGIA. SW-W WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ARE EVIDENT N OF THE RIDGE...AND E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS EXIST S OF THE RIDGE. SEAS N OF THE RIDGE RANGE FROM 3-4 FT E OF 70W...AND 2-3 FT W OF 70W. S OF THE RIDGE...SEAS ARE 3-4 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 29N TODAY THROUGH SUN AS THE RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY NWD. STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SWD THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT TO FILTER S INTO THE FAR NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 77W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO MON AS POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES...BUT SUGGEST IT WILL BE IN THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N65W BY TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA S TO 12N81W MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SAT...AND INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA SAT AND SUN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE TO OR JUST ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IN ANY EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN TSTM ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ALONG 46W/47W IS MOVING W AT 17 KT. THIS WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT NIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SUN...AND POSSIBLY REACH THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON AND TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE