000 AGXX40 KNHC 110739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL WAVE S OF 23N ALONG 94W IN BAY OF CAMPECHE BUILDING PLENTY OF DEEP AND STRONG CONVECTION AS AXIS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMES IN SYNC WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NORTHERN SHIFT OF MONSOON TROUGH BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WARM AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO REGION. MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS AT THE SW EDGE OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SHOULD BE DRIFTING AWAY THROUGH EARLY TODAY...BUT FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT COULD POSSIBLE SPREAD CONVECTION N AND MAY STILL IMPACT SW WATERS. ELSEWHERE...ATLC RIDGE EXTEND W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO N GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N WITH 1017 MB HIGH PRES JUST OFFSHORE TAMPA. THIS BRINGS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO N HALF OF BASIN AND TO MODERATE E BREEZE TO SOUTHERN HALF. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO CROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE AND EMERGE OVER SW GULF ZONE WED WHERE ABOVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 79W INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 18N81W TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AND W OF ITS AXIS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALSO MADE AVAILABLE BY NORTHWARD SHIFT OF MONSOON TROUGH POINTS TO EXTENSIVE AREA OF TURBULENT WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT...A TAD HIGHER THAN WHAT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN STATING. PRESENTLY VERY STRONG ELY TRADES COVER BASIN FROM 65W TO 80W. WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN ONCE THE EFFECTS OF SECOND TROPICAL WAVE HAVE GONE...JUST IN TIME TO HAVE THIRD WAVE CROSS INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM TROPICAL ATLC ZONE. WHILE THIS THIRD WAVE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME...IT WILL BE APPROACHING AN AREA OF WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS MAKING IT ELIGIBLE FOR INCREASE CONVECTIVE IMPACT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... ATLC SURFACE RIDGE MAINTAIN GOOD SUPPORT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND EXPANDS W WITH RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER TEXAS. RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE THU WHEN WEAK LOW PRES CENTER AND COLD FRONT SCRAPE THE NE CORNER OF BASIN ON A SE DRIFT WHICH COULD FORCE THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES 000 AGXX40 KNHC 110739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL WAVE S OF 23N ALONG 94W IN BAY OF CAMPECHE BUILDING PLENTY OF DEEP AND STRONG CONVECTION AS AXIS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMES IN SYNC WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NORTHERN SHIFT OF MONSOON TROUGH BRINGS ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WARM AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO REGION. MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS AT THE SW EDGE OF BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SHOULD BE DRIFTING AWAY THROUGH EARLY TODAY...BUT FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT COULD POSSIBLE SPREAD CONVECTION N AND MAY STILL IMPACT SW WATERS. ELSEWHERE...ATLC RIDGE EXTEND W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO N GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N WITH 1017 MB HIGH PRES JUST OFFSHORE TAMPA. THIS BRINGS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO N HALF OF BASIN AND TO MODERATE E BREEZE TO SOUTHERN HALF. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO CROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE AND EMERGE OVER SW GULF ZONE WED WHERE ABOVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FAVORABLE FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 79W INTERACTING WITH UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 18N81W TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AND W OF ITS AXIS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALSO MADE AVAILABLE BY NORTHWARD SHIFT OF MONSOON TROUGH POINTS TO EXTENSIVE AREA OF TURBULENT WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT...A TAD HIGHER THAN WHAT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN STATING. PRESENTLY VERY STRONG ELY TRADES COVER BASIN FROM 65W TO 80W. WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN ONCE THE EFFECTS OF SECOND TROPICAL WAVE HAVE GONE...JUST IN TIME TO HAVE THIRD WAVE CROSS INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM TROPICAL ATLC ZONE. WHILE THIS THIRD WAVE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME...IT WILL BE APPROACHING AN AREA OF WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS MAKING IT ELIGIBLE FOR INCREASE CONVECTIVE IMPACT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... ATLC SURFACE RIDGE MAINTAIN GOOD SUPPORT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND EXPANDS W WITH RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER TEXAS. RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE THU WHEN WEAK LOW PRES CENTER AND COLD FRONT SCRAPE THE NE CORNER OF BASIN ON A SE DRIFT WHICH COULD FORCE THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES