000 AGXX40 KNHC 101851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX HAS MOVED NW AND WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BUT IS STILL YIELDING SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AND N CENTRAL GULF FOR ISOLATED DEEP CNVTN THERE. AFTER MUCH INTERNAL DEBATE THE PAST 2 DAYS...TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO MAPS MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN AND INTO SW GULF WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTING NW FOR CNVTN NOTED ABOVE. WAVE WILL CONTINUE WNW OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER SHIFTING W AND WNW ACROSS W HALF OF GULF...BEFORE WEAKENING QUICKLY MON AS IT ENCOUNTERS ANTICYCLONIC DEEP LAYERED FLOW AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND WWD INTO E HALF OF GULF ALONG ABOUT 27N THROUGH MID WEEK TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS BASIN WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS W PORTIONS. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO ENTER YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE AND EMERGE OVER SW GULF ZONE WED WHERE CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTION...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LLVL MONSOONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR EPAC BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BROAD WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIB WILL SHIFT W NEXT FEW DAYS AS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WWD AND REACH ALONG ABOUT 80W AROUND 12Z MON AND ALONG ABOUT 85W 12Z TUE. PRIOR TO TUE...WIND AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MAIN CONCERN AS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST MOISTURE AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALOFT ACROSS NRN CARIB. 12Z RUNS OF UKMET AND GFS INITIALIZING NEAR 30 KT OF SFC FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF SRN HISPANIOLA AND OFF OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS APPROACHING NEAR 12 FT ATTM BOTH SE OF JAMAICA AND OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. WIND FIELD WILL SHIFT W WITH TROPICAL WAVE INTO WRN CARIB BY TUE MORNING AND HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ELSEWHERE AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS NEAR 8 FT SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TUE ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS AND FAR NW PORTIONS S OF 19N. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CNVTN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIB COASTAL ZONES BEYOND TUE AS UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW EVOLVES ACROSS THE EPAC. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH AND AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. WAVE TO CROSS 60W AROUND 12Z TUE...BUT IS HIGHLY NE TO SW TILED IN THE HORIZONTAL. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... RETROGRADING MID TO UPPER VORTEX OFF THE SC-GA COASTS ENHANCING CNVTN ALONG OLD CONVERGENCE ZONE THERE BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON MON AS TROUGH SINKS S AND UPPER CONVERGENCE STABILIZES N PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE TO MAINTAIN OVERALL POSITION NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG ABOUT 28N WITH FRESH FLOW THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND BAHAMA BANKS. DEEP LAYERED ROUGH MOVING W THROUGH STRAITS WILL SHIFT INTO SE GULF AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT 48 HOURS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING 000 AGXX40 KNHC 101851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX HAS MOVED NW AND WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BUT IS STILL YIELDING SPEED DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AND N CENTRAL GULF FOR ISOLATED DEEP CNVTN THERE. AFTER MUCH INTERNAL DEBATE THE PAST 2 DAYS...TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO MAPS MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN AND INTO SW GULF WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTING NW FOR CNVTN NOTED ABOVE. WAVE WILL CONTINUE WNW OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER SHIFTING W AND WNW ACROSS W HALF OF GULF...BEFORE WEAKENING QUICKLY MON AS IT ENCOUNTERS ANTICYCLONIC DEEP LAYERED FLOW AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND WWD INTO E HALF OF GULF ALONG ABOUT 27N THROUGH MID WEEK TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS BASIN WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS W PORTIONS. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO ENTER YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE AND EMERGE OVER SW GULF ZONE WED WHERE CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR EXTENSIVE CONVECTION...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LLVL MONSOONAL WLY FLOW ACROSS THE FAR EPAC BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BROAD WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIB WILL SHIFT W NEXT FEW DAYS AS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WWD AND REACH ALONG ABOUT 80W AROUND 12Z MON AND ALONG ABOUT 85W 12Z TUE. PRIOR TO TUE...WIND AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MAIN CONCERN AS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST MOISTURE AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALOFT ACROSS NRN CARIB. 12Z RUNS OF UKMET AND GFS INITIALIZING NEAR 30 KT OF SFC FLOW JUST OFFSHORE OF SRN HISPANIOLA AND OFF OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS APPROACHING NEAR 12 FT ATTM BOTH SE OF JAMAICA AND OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. WIND FIELD WILL SHIFT W WITH TROPICAL WAVE INTO WRN CARIB BY TUE MORNING AND HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ELSEWHERE AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS NEAR 8 FT SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TUE ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS AND FAR NW PORTIONS S OF 19N. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CNVTN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIB COASTAL ZONES BEYOND TUE AS UNUSUALLY STRONG MONSOONAL FLOW EVOLVES ACROSS THE EPAC. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH AND AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. WAVE TO CROSS 60W AROUND 12Z TUE...BUT IS HIGHLY NE TO SW TILED IN THE HORIZONTAL. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... RETROGRADING MID TO UPPER VORTEX OFF THE SC-GA COASTS ENHANCING CNVTN ALONG OLD CONVERGENCE ZONE THERE BUT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON MON AS TROUGH SINKS S AND UPPER CONVERGENCE STABILIZES N PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE TO MAINTAIN OVERALL POSITION NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG ABOUT 28N WITH FRESH FLOW THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND BAHAMA BANKS. DEEP LAYERED ROUGH MOVING W THROUGH STRAITS WILL SHIFT INTO SE GULF AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT 48 HOURS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING