000 AGXX40 KNHC 091856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER NW GULF DRIFTING W AND INDUCING INSTABILITY ACROSS NW QUARTER OF THE GULF. LOW TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND ALLOW UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE BASIN WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS N HALF. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS SE GULF WILL SHIFT NW AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN BUT CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE PROCESS. PERTURBATION IN FAR NW CARIB TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING AND SHIFT INTO S CENTRAL GULF SUN AFTERNOON LIKELY TO IGNITE SOME SIGNIFICANT CNVTN. SURFACE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW TO SE GULF E OF ABOVE WEAK TROUGHING WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY N TO 27N THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS TO YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MILD SEAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE N THROUGH NW OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AS DIURNAL TROUGH AND AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION MOVE OFF THE COAST SUN EVENING TO PUSH WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN TUE AND EMERGE OVER SW GULF WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TRADES ARE DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIB BASIN TODAY AS ATLC RIDGE NOSES INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO. ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS FAR NW CARIB APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD WITH LLVL TROUGH THAT WE CARRIED ON OUR SFC MAPS SEVERAL DAYS AGO...BUT FEEL THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE A TROPICAL WAVE. REGARDLESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W-NW AND INTO YUCATAN TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CARIB ATTM PRODUCING WEATHER MAINLY ON NE FLANKS AS SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF AXIS NOT ALLOWING FOR CONVERGENCE OR WEATHER. MODELS MOVE THIS WAVE QUICKLY W NEXT FEW DAYS...AT ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES PER DAY...AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA MON AND THE YUCATAN TUE MORNING. A BROAD ZONE OF 25 KT TRADES WILL DEVELOP NEXT 36 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB AS THIS WAVE RACES WNW AND WILL KICK UP SEAS 9-11 FT WITH PEAK SEAS AROUND 12 FT. ASSOCIATED CNVTN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS E AND NE PORTIONS OF WAVE AND SCRAPE HISPANIOLA WITH ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUN. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR AND A NARROW ZONE OF SAL MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY UNDER A MODERATE ENE SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS SE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXITED GULF OF MEXICO LAST NIGHT NOW JUST N OF EXTREME NW CORNER OF ZONE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN S TO SW LOW TO MID LVL FLOW. MOISTURE AND WEATHER TO LIFT OUT TO NE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL ATLC W-SW INTO N HALF OF BAHAMAS THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH ESE FLOW THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND BAHAMA BANK...WITH PEAK SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT. SOME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIL TROUGH MOVING WNW THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH MON MORNING. OTHERWISE MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MILD SEAS TO PREVAIL NEXT FEW DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING 000 AGXX40 KNHC 091856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER NW GULF DRIFTING W AND INDUCING INSTABILITY ACROSS NW QUARTER OF THE GULF. LOW TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT AND ALLOW UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE BASIN WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS N HALF. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS SE GULF WILL SHIFT NW AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN BUT CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE PROCESS. PERTURBATION IN FAR NW CARIB TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING AND SHIFT INTO S CENTRAL GULF SUN AFTERNOON LIKELY TO IGNITE SOME SIGNIFICANT CNVTN. SURFACE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW TO SE GULF E OF ABOVE WEAK TROUGHING WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY N TO 27N THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS TO YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MILD SEAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE N THROUGH NW OF YUCATAN PENINSULA AS DIURNAL TROUGH AND AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION MOVE OFF THE COAST SUN EVENING TO PUSH WINDS NEAR 20 KT AND SEAS 4-5 FT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN TUE AND EMERGE OVER SW GULF WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TRADES ARE DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIB BASIN TODAY AS ATLC RIDGE NOSES INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO. ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS FAR NW CARIB APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD WITH LLVL TROUGH THAT WE CARRIED ON OUR SFC MAPS SEVERAL DAYS AGO...BUT FEEL THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE A TROPICAL WAVE. REGARDLESS...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W-NW AND INTO YUCATAN TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CARIB ATTM PRODUCING WEATHER MAINLY ON NE FLANKS AS SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF AXIS NOT ALLOWING FOR CONVERGENCE OR WEATHER. MODELS MOVE THIS WAVE QUICKLY W NEXT FEW DAYS...AT ABOUT 6-7 DEGREES PER DAY...AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA MON AND THE YUCATAN TUE MORNING. A BROAD ZONE OF 25 KT TRADES WILL DEVELOP NEXT 36 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB AS THIS WAVE RACES WNW AND WILL KICK UP SEAS 9-11 FT WITH PEAK SEAS AROUND 12 FT. ASSOCIATED CNVTN EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS E AND NE PORTIONS OF WAVE AND SCRAPE HISPANIOLA WITH ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUN. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR AND A NARROW ZONE OF SAL MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY UNDER A MODERATE ENE SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS SE. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXITED GULF OF MEXICO LAST NIGHT NOW JUST N OF EXTREME NW CORNER OF ZONE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN S TO SW LOW TO MID LVL FLOW. MOISTURE AND WEATHER TO LIFT OUT TO NE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL ATLC W-SW INTO N HALF OF BAHAMAS THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH ESE FLOW THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND BAHAMA BANK...WITH PEAK SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT. SOME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIL TROUGH MOVING WNW THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH MON MORNING. OTHERWISE MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MILD SEAS TO PREVAIL NEXT FEW DAYS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING