000 AGXX40 KNHC 081843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 25N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH SLICES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THROUGH THE LOW TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR...SOUTHWESTERLY 20 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 7 FT THEN SUBSIDING GRADUALLY THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES NORTH AND DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROVIDING FOR A 180 NM WIDE SWATH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REACHING NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 28N. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GULF GENERALLY W OF 90W ANCHORED ON A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 27N/28N SUN INTO MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HOWEVER ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD ALONG 75W. EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE SURFACE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA...AND THE OTHER APPROACHING BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... CONTINUE TO MARCH W-NW AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO BRING PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND TO THOSE RESPECTIVE ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WESTERNMOST TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF THE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 28/29N IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT ACROSS THIS REGION ACCOMPANYING THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH ALONG 65W. THE EASTERNMOST WAVE ALONG 59W WILL MOVE SWIFTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE REGION REACHING FROM 32N80W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE CONTINUING SW INTO THE NE GULF AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF 76W AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE S TO SW WINDS. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL MOVE W-NW FRI INTO SAT...THEN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN INTO MON. RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM S OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N65W SW-W TO NEAR 25N80W. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 28/29N SAT THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER HUFFMAN 000 AGXX40 KNHC 081843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 25N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH SLICES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THROUGH THE LOW TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR...SOUTHWESTERLY 20 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 7 FT THEN SUBSIDING GRADUALLY THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES NORTH AND DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROVIDING FOR A 180 NM WIDE SWATH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REACHING NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 28N. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GULF GENERALLY W OF 90W ANCHORED ON A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 27N/28N SUN INTO MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HOWEVER ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD ALONG 75W. EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE SURFACE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES...ONE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA...AND THE OTHER APPROACHING BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... CONTINUE TO MARCH W-NW AND ARE ANTICIPATED TO BRING PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND TO THOSE RESPECTIVE ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WESTERNMOST TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF THE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 28/29N IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT ACROSS THIS REGION ACCOMPANYING THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED PRIMARILY EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH ALONG 65W. THE EASTERNMOST WAVE ALONG 59W WILL MOVE SWIFTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE REGION REACHING FROM 32N80W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE CONTINUING SW INTO THE NE GULF AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF 76W AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE S TO SW WINDS. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA WILL MOVE W-NW FRI INTO SAT...THEN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN INTO MON. RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM S OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N65W SW-W TO NEAR 25N80W. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 28/29N SAT THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER HUFFMAN