000 AGXX40 KNHC 060833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2011 SW N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 27N76W TO 22N77W BRINGING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND NEEDED RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WHILE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 31N MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE OVER MOST OF BASIN N OF 26N. TROUGH MOVES NW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CARRYING ALONG ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO INCREASE EVEN MORE TODAY THROUGH THU. MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON MOVING TROUGH NW OUT OF AREA AND DISSIPATING BY SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM NW TIP OF CUBA TO SW CORNER OF GULF OF HONDURAS MOVE W-NW AT 10-15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS IT ENTERS AREA OF DRIER AIR MASS FORCED SE BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING EXTREME SE CORNER OF BASIN EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPORARY FRESH SE BREEZE AND SCATTERED TSTMS INTO BASIN S OF 14N E OF 65W. TROUGH CONTINUES W TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WEAKENS FURTHER AND BECOMES DIFFUSE THU. MUCH STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE FROM 20N49W TO 11N54W FOLLOWS TROUGH WITH MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY W OF AXIS S OF 15N. AS WAVE ENTERS EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI...EXPECT MORE MOISTURE TO EXPAND AREA OF CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STRENGTHEN WAVE...PACKING STRONGER WINDS AND MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W LATE WED OR THU AND ENTER EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GULF OF MEXICO... WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX AT 27N91W HAS TROUGH EXTEND SW INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TODAY. VORTEX HAS BROUGHT DRY AIR MASS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INTO SW GULF WITH POSSIBILITY OF SLOWING AND WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY. VORTEX STUBBORNLY HOLD ITS PLACE TILL SAT WHEN MODELS HAVE IT MOVING W OUT OF BASIN. PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 88W...REFLECTION OF CYCLONE ALOFT...HAS NOW BECOME DIFFUSE AS RIDGE ALONG 31N EXPANDS W. CYCLONE NOT ONLY ENHANCES MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM DEEP E PAC TROPICS ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA BUT ALSO PROMPTS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH MAKES REGION RIPE FOR INCREASE CONVECTION. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES 000 AGXX40 KNHC 060833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2011 SW N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 27N76W TO 22N77W BRINGING BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND NEEDED RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WHILE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 31N MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE OVER MOST OF BASIN N OF 26N. TROUGH MOVES NW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CARRYING ALONG ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO INCREASE EVEN MORE TODAY THROUGH THU. MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AGREE ON MOVING TROUGH NW OUT OF AREA AND DISSIPATING BY SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM NW TIP OF CUBA TO SW CORNER OF GULF OF HONDURAS MOVE W-NW AT 10-15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS IT ENTERS AREA OF DRIER AIR MASS FORCED SE BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING EXTREME SE CORNER OF BASIN EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPORARY FRESH SE BREEZE AND SCATTERED TSTMS INTO BASIN S OF 14N E OF 65W. TROUGH CONTINUES W TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WEAKENS FURTHER AND BECOMES DIFFUSE THU. MUCH STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE FROM 20N49W TO 11N54W FOLLOWS TROUGH WITH MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY W OF AXIS S OF 15N. AS WAVE ENTERS EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI...EXPECT MORE MOISTURE TO EXPAND AREA OF CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STRENGTHEN WAVE...PACKING STRONGER WINDS AND MORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W LATE WED OR THU AND ENTER EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GULF OF MEXICO... WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX AT 27N91W HAS TROUGH EXTEND SW INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TODAY. VORTEX HAS BROUGHT DRY AIR MASS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INTO SW GULF WITH POSSIBILITY OF SLOWING AND WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY. VORTEX STUBBORNLY HOLD ITS PLACE TILL SAT WHEN MODELS HAVE IT MOVING W OUT OF BASIN. PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 88W...REFLECTION OF CYCLONE ALOFT...HAS NOW BECOME DIFFUSE AS RIDGE ALONG 31N EXPANDS W. CYCLONE NOT ONLY ENHANCES MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM DEEP E PAC TROPICS ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH FLORIDA BUT ALSO PROMPTS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH MAKES REGION RIPE FOR INCREASE CONVECTION. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES