000 AGXX40 KNHC 051850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011 SW N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM 26N72W TO 20N76W...WHILE A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N74W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N73W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS SHOWN ON A PARTIAL 1534 UTC ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS INDICATE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT E OF TROUGH TO 66W WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE SEAS IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE ARE NOTED WITH THE MAX OF 8 FT NEAR 24N72W. LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CARRYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IN A NW DIRECTION TO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT... TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND TO THEE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA E COAST BY WED EVENING AND INTO THU BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS LATER ON THU INTO FRI. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFSHORES FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND TIMING. THE MODEL OUTLIERS ARE STILL THE NOGAPS...CMC AND REGIONAL NAM IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A LOW FROM THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO THE NW WATERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PRESENT FORECAST METHODOLOGY...AND KEEP E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT E OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE AREA OF THESE WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH LIFTS IN A NW MOTION. HOWEVER...WILL STRESS THAT WINDS MAY HIGHER WITH THE WORDING..."HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS/TSTMS" MAINLY TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE TO THE N OF THE TROUGH...I DON'T EXPECT THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN TOO MUCH NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE MAP HAS A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM NW CUBA SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONFINED OVER THE MUCH OF THE NW AND N SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER LEVEL MOIST SW FLOW TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CUBA. A PARTIAL 1536 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS AS IS ALSO BEING SHOWN BUOYS 42056 AT 20N85W AND BUOY 42057 AT 17N82W. THE WAVE IS WILL MOVE W OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. LEFT BEHIND THE WAVE IS AN AREA OF HIGHER E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-8 FT...EXCEPT 7-9 FT IN THE SW SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDING SOME TO THE SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EXPECT THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W...AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W SAT AND SUN. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 10 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WED AND WED NIGHT AS SUGGEST BY A FEW OF THE WAVEWATCH MODELS...BUT THEN SUBSIDE AFTER WED NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE APPROACHING 49W IS MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THAT THU AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. IT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AND REACH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N55W TO 9N761W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND AND WED NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ILL-DEFINED OVER S AMERICA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING AT 1536 UTC SHOWED A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THIS TROUGH...WITH SE WINDS OF 20 KT BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXETNDS FROM 28N88W TO 23N90W MOVING W AT 10 KT...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN GULF UNDER THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF N OF 24N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AGAIN SHOW VERY QUIET CONDITIONS UNDER THE WEAK PRES PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF WHERE E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED. A PARTIAL ASCAT FROM NEAR 1534 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED VERY LIGHT E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE WESTERN GULF. SEAS RANGES FROM 1-3 FT ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE SE PORTION WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS MAY HIGHER IN THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED THROUGH SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH. AS FOR IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE WAVE...A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE SW GULF ZONE S OF 23N FRI AND SAT BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT IN SPEEDS. HOWEVER...WINDS CAN BE GUSTY WITH ANY SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 051850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011 SW N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM 26N72W TO 20N76W...WHILE A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N74W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N73W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS SHOWN ON A PARTIAL 1534 UTC ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS INDICATE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT E OF TROUGH TO 66W WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE SEAS IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE ARE NOTED WITH THE MAX OF 8 FT NEAR 24N72W. LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CARRYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IN A NW DIRECTION TO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT... TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND TO THEE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA E COAST BY WED EVENING AND INTO THU BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS LATER ON THU INTO FRI. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFSHORES FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND TIMING. THE MODEL OUTLIERS ARE STILL THE NOGAPS...CMC AND REGIONAL NAM IN TRYING TO DEVELOP A LOW FROM THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO THE NW WATERS LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PRESENT FORECAST METHODOLOGY...AND KEEP E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT E OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE AREA OF THESE WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH LIFTS IN A NW MOTION. HOWEVER...WILL STRESS THAT WINDS MAY HIGHER WITH THE WORDING..."HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS/TSTMS" MAINLY TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AS WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE TO THE N OF THE TROUGH...I DON'T EXPECT THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN TOO MUCH NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE MAP HAS A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM NW CUBA SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONFINED OVER THE MUCH OF THE NW AND N SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER LEVEL MOIST SW FLOW TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CUBA. A PARTIAL 1536 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS AS IS ALSO BEING SHOWN BUOYS 42056 AT 20N85W AND BUOY 42057 AT 17N82W. THE WAVE IS WILL MOVE W OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. LEFT BEHIND THE WAVE IS AN AREA OF HIGHER E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 5-8 FT...EXCEPT 7-9 FT IN THE SW SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDING SOME TO THE SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND EXPECT THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W...AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W SAT AND SUN. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 10 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WED AND WED NIGHT AS SUGGEST BY A FEW OF THE WAVEWATCH MODELS...BUT THEN SUBSIDE AFTER WED NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE APPROACHING 49W IS MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THAT THU AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. IT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AND REACH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N55W TO 9N761W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND AND WED NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ILL-DEFINED OVER S AMERICA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING AT 1536 UTC SHOWED A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THIS TROUGH...WITH SE WINDS OF 20 KT BEHIND THE TROUGH. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXETNDS FROM 28N88W TO 23N90W MOVING W AT 10 KT...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN GULF UNDER THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF N OF 24N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AGAIN SHOW VERY QUIET CONDITIONS UNDER THE WEAK PRES PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF WHERE E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED. A PARTIAL ASCAT FROM NEAR 1534 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED VERY LIGHT E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE WESTERN GULF. SEAS RANGES FROM 1-3 FT ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE SE PORTION WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS MAY HIGHER IN THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION EARLY TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED THROUGH SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH. AS FOR IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THE WAVE...A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE SW GULF ZONE S OF 23N FRI AND SAT BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT IN SPEEDS. HOWEVER...WINDS CAN BE GUSTY WITH ANY SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE