000 AGXX40 KNHC 050631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS HAS AN ASSOCIATED N-S ORIENTATED WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W AND MOVE INLAND TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGES W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY WEAK TROUGHS THAT DIP SE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWING ON ITS APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND SHOULD FURTHER SLOW DOWN ON ITS WNW TRACK AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED...THEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY W THROUGH SAT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG WAVE AXIS. A SECOND WEAK TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS FL THU AND INTO THE EXTREME E GULF WATERS LATE THU AFTERNOON...CONTINUING ON A MORE NW TRACK THEREAFTER...AND WASHING OUT FRI OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE E OF 88W. ONLY EXPECTING A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... HIGH PRES NEAR 30N72W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 31N. A NNE-SSW ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL REACH THE NW BAHAMAS WED WHILE AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 29N. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME JUST AT IT MOVES ONSHORE THE FL E COAST AROUND SUNRISE THU. LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS FL THU INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THROUGH LATE THU...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AROUND A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION...WITH ITS AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY WED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER A 1000 NM TO ITS E. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 43W...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...BUT ONLY A FEW TSTMS. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS...AT NE 15-20 KT... WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT E OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE AXIS SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W THU NIGHT...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W FRI NIGHT...REACHING ALONG 70W SUNRISE ON SUN. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT AND OCCASIONAL FLAREUPS OF STRONG TSTMS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TRINIDAD WED AFTERNOON AND LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN THU AS THE FASTER MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON 000 AGXX40 KNHC 050631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS HAS AN ASSOCIATED N-S ORIENTATED WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT W AND MOVE INLAND TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGES W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY WEAK TROUGHS THAT DIP SE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWING ON ITS APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND SHOULD FURTHER SLOW DOWN ON ITS WNW TRACK AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED...THEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY W THROUGH SAT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT ALONG WAVE AXIS. A SECOND WEAK TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS FL THU AND INTO THE EXTREME E GULF WATERS LATE THU AFTERNOON...CONTINUING ON A MORE NW TRACK THEREAFTER...AND WASHING OUT FRI OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE E OF 88W. ONLY EXPECTING A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THIS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... HIGH PRES NEAR 30N72W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 31N. A NNE-SSW ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING NW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL REACH THE NW BAHAMAS WED WHILE AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 29N. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME JUST AT IT MOVES ONSHORE THE FL E COAST AROUND SUNRISE THU. LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS FL THU INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THROUGH LATE THU...FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AROUND A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION...WITH ITS AXIS EXPECTED TO MOVE W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY WED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER A 1000 NM TO ITS E. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 43W...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...BUT ONLY A FEW TSTMS. THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS...AT NE 15-20 KT... WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT E OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE AXIS SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W THU NIGHT...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W FRI NIGHT...REACHING ALONG 70W SUNRISE ON SUN. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT AND OCCASIONAL FLAREUPS OF STRONG TSTMS. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TRINIDAD WED AFTERNOON AND LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN THU AS THE FASTER MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON