000 AGXX40 KNHC 040626 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 SW N ATLC... RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLC WATERS TONIGHT WITH TE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE BEING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF HAITI TO 25N69W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TODAY... THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS TUE AND ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST BY LATE WED. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA. 0146 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 20+ KT WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NW MAINLY TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS/BAHAMA BANK. NWW3 APPEARS TO BE OVERFORECASTING SEAS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT BY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF WAVE MODELS ARE AT 7 FT. A COMPROMISE OF FORECAST SEAS OF 8-9 FT IS REFLECTED IN THE TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS WITH SEAS TRENDING DOWN BY 72 HOURS. THE LESS RELIABLE NOGAPS AND CMC STILL REMAIN OUTLIERS AS BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A LOW ON THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND TOWARDS THE E CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA ON WED. THUS AN OPEN TROUGH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST VICE A SURFACE LOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... 0146 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 79W/80W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...GENERALLY ALONG 84W LATE TODAY...86W/87W LATE TUE AND MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN ON WED...THEN CROSS MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THU AND FRI WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. INCREASING E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE WAVE THROUGH WED...AND MAY EXPAND SOME TO THE E ON THU AND FRI AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 9 FT OR 10 FT OVER THE FAR S AND SW PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FAR NE GULF NEAR 30N86W WITH A RIDGE SW TO THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF UNDER A RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE CMANS ARE REPORTING STEADY E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WITH OVERALL RIDGING REMAINING JUST NE OF THE AREA. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 79W/80W MOVING W AT 15 KT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THU INTO FRI. IMPACTS TO WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT MOST LIKELY BEING GUSTY WINDS DUE TO ENHANCED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY INITIATED BY THIS TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER COBB 000 AGXX40 KNHC 040626 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 SW N ATLC... RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLC WATERS TONIGHT WITH TE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE BEING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF HAITI TO 25N69W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TODAY... THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS TUE AND ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST BY LATE WED. THE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN PLACE THROUGH FRI AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA. 0146 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 20+ KT WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NW MAINLY TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS/BAHAMA BANK. NWW3 APPEARS TO BE OVERFORECASTING SEAS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT BY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF WAVE MODELS ARE AT 7 FT. A COMPROMISE OF FORECAST SEAS OF 8-9 FT IS REFLECTED IN THE TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORECASTS WITH SEAS TRENDING DOWN BY 72 HOURS. THE LESS RELIABLE NOGAPS AND CMC STILL REMAIN OUTLIERS AS BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A LOW ON THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND TOWARDS THE E CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA ON WED. THUS AN OPEN TROUGH IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST VICE A SURFACE LOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... 0146 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 79W/80W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...GENERALLY ALONG 84W LATE TODAY...86W/87W LATE TUE AND MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN ON WED...THEN CROSS MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC THU AND FRI WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. INCREASING E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE WAVE THROUGH WED...AND MAY EXPAND SOME TO THE E ON THU AND FRI AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 9 FT OR 10 FT OVER THE FAR S AND SW PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FAR NE GULF NEAR 30N86W WITH A RIDGE SW TO THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF UNDER A RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE CMANS ARE REPORTING STEADY E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WITH OVERALL RIDGING REMAINING JUST NE OF THE AREA. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 79W/80W MOVING W AT 15 KT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS THU INTO FRI. IMPACTS TO WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT MOST LIKELY BEING GUSTY WINDS DUE TO ENHANCED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY INITIATED BY THIS TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED THROUGH FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER COBB