000 AGXX40 KNHC 031846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011 SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS...AND BECOMES FAINTLY DEFINED TO SE FLORIDA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS JUST N OF THE AREA. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT S OF 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 71W WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE N IS ALLOWING FOR E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 3-5 FT ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE HIGHER SEAS ...IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...ARE OBSERVED. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO MON AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST N OF THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ...FOR THE MOST PART...IN CARRYING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N70W TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SE BAHAMAS MON...THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS TUE AND WED...AND TO THE NW WATERS THU THEN DISSIPATE FRI AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA. THE NOGAPS AND CMC STILL LIKE TO DEVELOP A LOW ON THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND TOWARDS THE E CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA ON WED. FOR THIS FORECAST VALID THROUGH FRI (DAY 5) WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS WHAT WAS ALSO AGREED ON BY NHC/HPC ON THE MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 25N72W TO 18N70W IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE SE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SE OF THE TROUGH AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE E-SE 20 KT WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MORE A NE-E COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1438 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED RATHER LIGHT E-SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT AS MENTIONED BELOW WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG 78W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS WAVE IS RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 81W MON MORNING ...86W TUE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND W OF THE AREA ON WED. THE E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE WAVE THROUGH WED... AND MAY EXPAND SOME TO THE E ON THU AND FRI AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 9 FT OR 10 FT OVER THE FAR S AND SW PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXETNDS FROM 28N86W TO 23N87W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT...WHILE A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FAR NW GULF NEAR 28N95W WITH A RIDGE SW TO THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF UNDER A RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A FEW SHIPS ARE REPORTING E WINDS OF 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE 1017 MB IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST NE OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE UPCOMING CHANGES PERTAIN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 78W MOVING W AT 15 KT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WED AND THU. IMPACTS TO WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT MOST LIKELY BEING GUSTY WINDS DUE TO ENHANCED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY INITIATED BY THIS TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED THROUGH DAY 5. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 031846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2011 SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO THE NW BAHAMAS...AND BECOMES FAINTLY DEFINED TO SE FLORIDA WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS JUST N OF THE AREA. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT S OF 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 71W WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE N IS ALLOWING FOR E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 3-5 FT ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE HIGHER SEAS ...IN THE RANGE OF 4-6 FT...ARE OBSERVED. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO MON AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST N OF THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ...FOR THE MOST PART...IN CARRYING THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N70W TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SE BAHAMAS MON...THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS TUE AND WED...AND TO THE NW WATERS THU THEN DISSIPATE FRI AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA. THE NOGAPS AND CMC STILL LIKE TO DEVELOP A LOW ON THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND TOWARDS THE E CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA ON WED. FOR THIS FORECAST VALID THROUGH FRI (DAY 5) WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS WHAT WAS ALSO AGREED ON BY NHC/HPC ON THE MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 25N72W TO 18N70W IS CONTINUING TO RESULT IN ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE SE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SE OF THE TROUGH AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE E-SE 20 KT WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MORE A NE-E COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1438 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED RATHER LIGHT E-SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT AS MENTIONED BELOW WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG 78W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS WAVE IS RESULTING IN E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 81W MON MORNING ...86W TUE AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND W OF THE AREA ON WED. THE E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE WAVE THROUGH WED... AND MAY EXPAND SOME TO THE E ON THU AND FRI AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 9 FT OR 10 FT OVER THE FAR S AND SW PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXETNDS FROM 28N86W TO 23N87W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT...WHILE A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FAR NW GULF NEAR 28N95W WITH A RIDGE SW TO THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL AND NW WATERS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF UNDER A RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A FEW SHIPS ARE REPORTING E WINDS OF 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. THE 1017 MB IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS A RIDGE REMAINS JUST NE OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE UPCOMING CHANGES PERTAIN TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 78W MOVING W AT 15 KT IMPACTING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WED AND THU. IMPACTS TO WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT MOST LIKELY BEING GUSTY WINDS DUE TO ENHANCED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY INITIATED BY THIS TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED THROUGH DAY 5. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE