000 AGXX40 KNHC 021853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 28.5N79.5W...AND CONTINUES SW TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A WEAK RIDGE IS JUST N OF THE AREA. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS TSTMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 210 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AND LOW PER AVAILABLE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. GENERALLY LIGHT E-SE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT NW OF THE TROUGH WHERE NE-E 10 KT WINDS ARE EVIDENT...AND IN THE SE AND S PORTIONS WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS BRINGING E-SE 20 KT WINDS AS SEEN BUOY/SHIP DATA AND SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON. AS PER BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SEA STATE IS RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE AND W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF 27N W OF 79W WHERE SEAS ARE 2-3 FT. THE HIGHER SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WHERE ALSO TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN TRANSPOSED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HAS MATERIALIZED INTO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY RACING NORTHWARD WITH GUSTY WINDS...ALL BEHIND A TUTT FEATURE JUST SE OF THE BAHAMAS THAT IS MIGRATING NW TO N WITH TIME. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES S THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGE TO WESTWARD THROUGH TUE. THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR DAYS 3-5 AND BEYOND WILL CARRY UNCERTAINTY AS GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSPIRE WITH TROUGH FEATURE MOVING IN A NW DIRECTION OVER THOSE AREA. THE GFS IS STILL AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LOW OVER ARE NEAR THE BAHAMAS BEGINNING TUE...AND TAKING IT N NE INTO THU. THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE MOST PART SUGGEST A TROUGH WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT TRACKS NW TOWARDS THE NW BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS RUN FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING ACTUALLY LIKES A LOW TO MOVE N ALONG THE E FLORIDA COAST FOR LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED AT WHICH TIME IT TAKES IT TO JUST N OF THE AREA OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. WITH THINGS NOT SO CLEAR WITH THE GUIDANCE WILL LEAN TOWARDS A TROUGH FEATURE LIKE CONSENSUS SHOWS FOR NEXT WEEK THAT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. WILL MAINTAIN E-SE WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT S OF 27N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1500 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS RECENTLY MOVED INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LEFT IN ITS WAKE ARE CONFINED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...AND WILL SPREAD NW AND N WITH TIME. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...RATHER VIGOROUS EARLIER TODAY...IS ALONG 71W MOVING W AT 16 KT. THIS WAVE HAD ENHANCED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE WAVE SHOULD APPROACH NEAR 73W OVERNIGHT...NEAR 77W SUN...82W SUN NIGHT...AND THEN MOVE W OF AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA MON THROUGH WED. WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N ALONG THE WAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N TO S ALONG 76W/77W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE WILL LOSE IDENTITY TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MONSOON GYRE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE E TRADES WILL DIMINISH SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A WEAKENING SURFACE ATLC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM TAMPA BAY TO NEAR 26N87W. STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EARLIER NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. JUST TO THE W...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OF 1019 MB IS AT 29N94W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AND MEANDER THROUGH 48W ALONG A RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL EXTEND NE TO SW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO STALL N OF THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT BACK E OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS MID WEEK. THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE...WHERE THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER (E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT). THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW WATERS WITH THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVING TONIGHT AND THE SECOND WAVE POSSIBLY ON TUE AND WED BEFORE PASSING W OF AREA ON THU...BUT SHOULD CONFINED TO THE FAR SW WATERS. ARRIVING TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 021853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2011 SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 28.5N79.5W...AND CONTINUES SW TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A WEAK RIDGE IS JUST N OF THE AREA. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS TSTMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 210 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AND LOW PER AVAILABLE RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. GENERALLY LIGHT E-SE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT NW OF THE TROUGH WHERE NE-E 10 KT WINDS ARE EVIDENT...AND IN THE SE AND S PORTIONS WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS BRINGING E-SE 20 KT WINDS AS SEEN BUOY/SHIP DATA AND SUGGESTED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON. AS PER BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SEA STATE IS RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE AND W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF 27N W OF 79W WHERE SEAS ARE 2-3 FT. THE HIGHER SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WHERE ALSO TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY HAS BEEN TRANSPOSED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HAS MATERIALIZED INTO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY RACING NORTHWARD WITH GUSTY WINDS...ALL BEHIND A TUTT FEATURE JUST SE OF THE BAHAMAS THAT IS MIGRATING NW TO N WITH TIME. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES S THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIDGE TO WESTWARD THROUGH TUE. THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FOR DAYS 3-5 AND BEYOND WILL CARRY UNCERTAINTY AS GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSPIRE WITH TROUGH FEATURE MOVING IN A NW DIRECTION OVER THOSE AREA. THE GFS IS STILL AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LOW OVER ARE NEAR THE BAHAMAS BEGINNING TUE...AND TAKING IT N NE INTO THU. THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE MOST PART SUGGEST A TROUGH WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT TRACKS NW TOWARDS THE NW BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS RUN FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING ACTUALLY LIKES A LOW TO MOVE N ALONG THE E FLORIDA COAST FOR LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED AT WHICH TIME IT TAKES IT TO JUST N OF THE AREA OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. WITH THINGS NOT SO CLEAR WITH THE GUIDANCE WILL LEAN TOWARDS A TROUGH FEATURE LIKE CONSENSUS SHOWS FOR NEXT WEEK THAT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. WILL MAINTAIN E-SE WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT S OF 27N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1500 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS RECENTLY MOVED INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LEFT IN ITS WAKE ARE CONFINED FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...AND WILL SPREAD NW AND N WITH TIME. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...RATHER VIGOROUS EARLIER TODAY...IS ALONG 71W MOVING W AT 16 KT. THIS WAVE HAD ENHANCED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE WAVE SHOULD APPROACH NEAR 73W OVERNIGHT...NEAR 77W SUN...82W SUN NIGHT...AND THEN MOVE W OF AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. A CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA MON THROUGH WED. WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N ALONG THE WAVE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N TO S ALONG 76W/77W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE WILL LOSE IDENTITY TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MONSOON GYRE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE E TRADES WILL DIMINISH SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A WEAKENING SURFACE ATLC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM TAMPA BAY TO NEAR 26N87W. STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EARLIER NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. JUST TO THE W...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OF 1019 MB IS AT 29N94W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AND MEANDER THROUGH 48W ALONG A RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL EXTEND NE TO SW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO STALL N OF THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT BACK E OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS MID WEEK. THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE...WHERE THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER (E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT). THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW WATERS WITH THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVING TONIGHT AND THE SECOND WAVE POSSIBLY ON TUE AND WED BEFORE PASSING W OF AREA ON THU...BUT SHOULD CONFINED TO THE FAR SW WATERS. ARRIVING TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE