000 AGXX40 KNHC 010710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 SW N ATLC... THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING CLOSE TO 29N65W TO 27N80W THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. EATING INTO THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGHING AND PASSING QUICKLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY AS HANDLED BY THE MODELS. THE 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS JUST E OF BUOY 41010. THE STRONGER 00Z GFS DID A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB CAPTURING THESE WINDS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT NEITHER WERE AS STRONG OR AS WIDESPREAD AS ASCAT SUGGESTS. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGER AREA OF 20 KT WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DIPS INTO NW WATERS. THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT REALISTIC GIVEN THE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS SHED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF CUBA. CONSIDERING THIS AND THAT IT WAS BETTER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY...WILL STICK CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKER MODEL CONSENSUS OVER NW WATERS...BUT STILL SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED BOUNDARY THAN THE OTHER MODELS OVER THE WEEKEND. FARTHER S...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SHED SOME OF ITS ENERGY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN NW WATERS MON AND TUE. THE GFS DEVELOPS STRONGER SURFACE TROUGHING WITH THIS ENERGY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FALL BETWEEN THE STRONG GFS AND THE WEAKER REMAINING MODELS. ITS CONSENSUS SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE AT THAT TIME. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0106 UTC AND 0248 UTC ASCAT PASSES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE CURRENT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W WILL MOVE INTO NICARAGUA LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MONSOON TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL PASS 70W BY SAT...80W BY LATE SUN AND THE SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MONSOON TROUGH...MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN TUE. WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A NOTCH BY SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND MIGRATES N. BY MON...THE INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH IN ADDITION TO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE HAVE MOVED WELL INLAND INTO MEXICO. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE TROUGHING OVER MEXICO SLACKENS. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF CUBA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MONSOON TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ENERGY ALOFT THAT REMAINS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERING BEHIND ARLENE OVER THE FAR SW GULF COAST SUN AND MON. AS THIS TROUGHING WEAKENS TUE...WINDS IN THE SW GULF WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW A FRESH BREEZE. ELSEWHERE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER 000 AGXX40 KNHC 010710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 SW N ATLC... THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING CLOSE TO 29N65W TO 27N80W THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. EATING INTO THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGHING AND PASSING QUICKLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY AS HANDLED BY THE MODELS. THE 0250 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS JUST E OF BUOY 41010. THE STRONGER 00Z GFS DID A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB CAPTURING THESE WINDS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT NEITHER WERE AS STRONG OR AS WIDESPREAD AS ASCAT SUGGESTS. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGER AREA OF 20 KT WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DIPS INTO NW WATERS. THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT REALISTIC GIVEN THE ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS SHED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF CUBA. CONSIDERING THIS AND THAT IT WAS BETTER WITH THE STRONGER WINDS INITIALLY...WILL STICK CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY. THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKER MODEL CONSENSUS OVER NW WATERS...BUT STILL SHOWS A BETTER DEFINED BOUNDARY THAN THE OTHER MODELS OVER THE WEEKEND. FARTHER S...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SHED SOME OF ITS ENERGY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN NW WATERS MON AND TUE. THE GFS DEVELOPS STRONGER SURFACE TROUGHING WITH THIS ENERGY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO FALL BETWEEN THE STRONG GFS AND THE WEAKER REMAINING MODELS. ITS CONSENSUS SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE AT THAT TIME. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0106 UTC AND 0248 UTC ASCAT PASSES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE CURRENT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W WILL MOVE INTO NICARAGUA LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MONSOON TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL PASS 70W BY SAT...80W BY LATE SUN AND THE SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MONSOON TROUGH...MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN TUE. WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A NOTCH BY SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND MIGRATES N. BY MON...THE INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH IN ADDITION TO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE HAVE MOVED WELL INLAND INTO MEXICO. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE TROUGHING OVER MEXICO SLACKENS. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF CUBA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MONSOON TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ENERGY ALOFT THAT REMAINS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERING BEHIND ARLENE OVER THE FAR SW GULF COAST SUN AND MON. AS THIS TROUGHING WEAKENS TUE...WINDS IN THE SW GULF WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW A FRESH BREEZE. ELSEWHERE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER