000 AGXX40 KNHC 301830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011 SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG 28N E OF 80W THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. EATING INTO THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE N FL COAST AND PASSING QUICKLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG GFS ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS ON SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE BOUNDARY BY FRI AFTERNOON PRIMARILY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH WIDESPREAD 20 KT WINDS WHILE THE UKMET IS THE WEAKEST. THE ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE SOLUTION TO USE AS PRIMARY BASIS FOR FORECAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ASCAT PASS AT 1400 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. THIS WAS UNEXPECTED BASED ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS... AND MAY BE RAIN CONTAMINATED DUE TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 56W. WILLING TO TAKE ASCAT AT FACE VALUE AND ASSUME WINDS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS ARE AT LEAST 25 KT...AND WILL ADJUST OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY ON NEXT CYCLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP ON CLOSE WATCH ON WIND OBSERVATIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY FRI. PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN REGION IS LARGE TUTT STRETCHING FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE ATLC TO THE GULF OF PANAMA. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY FAVORABLE E OF THE TUTT AXIS...AND IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT THE WAVE ALONG 56W TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACTIVE CONVECTION AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH-STRONG E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN DIMINISH SAT AND SUN AS ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL STEADILY DECREASE TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN AS A RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN WATERS. 12 FT SEAS RADIUS WAS BASED ON BUOY 42055 WHICH REPORTED 11-12 FT SEAS THIS MORNING SUBSIDING TO 9-10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. AS ARLENE MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT FRESH SE WINDS TONIGHT AND FRI THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 20N TO 23N W OF 95W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL 000 AGXX40 KNHC 301830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2011 SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG 28N E OF 80W THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. EATING INTO THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE N FL COAST AND PASSING QUICKLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG GFS ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS ON SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE BOUNDARY BY FRI AFTERNOON PRIMARILY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH WIDESPREAD 20 KT WINDS WHILE THE UKMET IS THE WEAKEST. THE ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE SOLUTION TO USE AS PRIMARY BASIS FOR FORECAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ASCAT PASS AT 1400 UTC SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. THIS WAS UNEXPECTED BASED ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS... AND MAY BE RAIN CONTAMINATED DUE TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 15N ALONG 56W. WILLING TO TAKE ASCAT AT FACE VALUE AND ASSUME WINDS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS ARE AT LEAST 25 KT...AND WILL ADJUST OFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY ON NEXT CYCLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP ON CLOSE WATCH ON WIND OBSERVATIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY FRI. PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN REGION IS LARGE TUTT STRETCHING FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE ATLC TO THE GULF OF PANAMA. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS VERY FAVORABLE E OF THE TUTT AXIS...AND IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT THE WAVE ALONG 56W TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACTIVE CONVECTION AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH-STRONG E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN DIMINISH SAT AND SUN AS ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL STEADILY DECREASE TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN AS A RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN WATERS. 12 FT SEAS RADIUS WAS BASED ON BUOY 42055 WHICH REPORTED 11-12 FT SEAS THIS MORNING SUBSIDING TO 9-10 FT THIS AFTERNOON. AS ARLENE MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT FRESH SE WINDS TONIGHT AND FRI THEN DIMINISH FRI NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 20N TO 23N W OF 95W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL