000 AGXX40 KNHC 300712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 312 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2011 CORRECTED FOR WARNINGS SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG 29N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. EATING INTO THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE N FL COAST...PASSING QUICKLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY AS HANDLED BY THE MODELS. 20 KT SW WINDS SEEN AT BUOY 41012 WED EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THEM BACK THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SE SIDE OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IT DEVELOPS OVER NW WATERS. WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CARRY A TROUGH OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME...NEITHER ARE AS DEEP AS STRONG AS THE GFS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THESE MODELS ON SOME STRENGTHENING OF THIS BOUNDARY BY FRI AFTERNOON PRIMARILY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH WIDESPREAD 20 KT WINDS WHILE THE UKMET IS THE WEAKEST. THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. FARTHER S...THE 0130 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH E-SE WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA. THESE FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER PRES TO THE S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRIMARILY OVER WATERS S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0128 UTC AND 0308 UTC ASCAT PASSED GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE CURRENT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W WILL TRACK W OF 80W TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NICARAGUA BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE ALREADY FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. ARLENE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SAT AND THEN DIMINISH SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 53W S OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TODAY...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FRESH WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22N97W AT 30/0600 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. BUOY 42055 IS WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF ARLENE. IT REPORTED SEAS SUBSIDED FROM 12 FT TO 11 FT BETWEEN 0400 UTC AND 0500 UTC. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE MAINTAINED AT 180 NM NE QUADRANT AS A RESULT. THE GFDL WAVEWATCH AS WELL AS THE OFCL WAVEWATCH ARE CAPTURING THE SEAS WELL HERE. THEY BOTH SUGGEST AN EXPANSION OF 12 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE TO 90 NM SE QUADRANT AS WELL AS 30-45 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE BASED ON THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII...BUT THERE ARE NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM THIS. ARLENE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE MEXICAN COAST. ONCE ARLENE IS INLAND...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH SE WINDS INTO FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SUN NIGHT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING S OF CUBA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 24N W OF 93W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER 000 AGXX40 KNHC 300712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 312 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2011 CORRECTED FOR WARNINGS SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG 29N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. EATING INTO THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE N FL COAST...PASSING QUICKLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY AS HANDLED BY THE MODELS. 20 KT SW WINDS SEEN AT BUOY 41012 WED EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THEM BACK THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SE SIDE OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM IT DEVELOPS OVER NW WATERS. WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CARRY A TROUGH OVER THE AREA AT THAT TIME...NEITHER ARE AS DEEP AS STRONG AS THE GFS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THESE MODELS ON SOME STRENGTHENING OF THIS BOUNDARY BY FRI AFTERNOON PRIMARILY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION WITH WIDESPREAD 20 KT WINDS WHILE THE UKMET IS THE WEAKEST. THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. FARTHER S...THE 0130 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH E-SE WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA. THESE FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER PRES TO THE S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRIMARILY OVER WATERS S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0128 UTC AND 0308 UTC ASCAT PASSED GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE CURRENT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W WILL TRACK W OF 80W TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO NICARAGUA BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE ALREADY FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. ARLENE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SAT AND THEN DIMINISH SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 53W S OF 15N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TODAY...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FRESH WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22N97W AT 30/0600 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. BUOY 42055 IS WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF ARLENE. IT REPORTED SEAS SUBSIDED FROM 12 FT TO 11 FT BETWEEN 0400 UTC AND 0500 UTC. THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE MAINTAINED AT 180 NM NE QUADRANT AS A RESULT. THE GFDL WAVEWATCH AS WELL AS THE OFCL WAVEWATCH ARE CAPTURING THE SEAS WELL HERE. THEY BOTH SUGGEST AN EXPANSION OF 12 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE TO 90 NM SE QUADRANT AS WELL AS 30-45 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. THIS SEEMED REASONABLE BASED ON THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII...BUT THERE ARE NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM THIS. ARLENE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE MEXICAN COAST. ONCE ARLENE IS INLAND...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FRESH SE WINDS INTO FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SUN NIGHT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING S OF CUBA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 24N W OF 93W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER