000 AGXX40 KNHC 291825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2011 SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG 29N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. ERODING THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 30N77W ON SAT WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE FOUND IN FAR NW WATERS BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 23N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER PRES TO THE S...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING S OF HAITI ALONG 73W WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN SPEED UP A BIT WED AND THU AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI THEN DIMINISH SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLC WEAKENS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY THU...MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN FRI...AND CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WEST IN THE SW GULF. DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO THU MORNING AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL STORM. BUOY 42055 IS LOCATED NE OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE QUADRANT OF HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS...AND HAS BEEN USED AS A BASIS FOR THE RADIUS OF BOTH 12 FT SEAS AND 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE SW GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A REMNANT LOW OF ARLENE MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO AND DISSIPATES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 20N TO 25N W OF 93W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL 000 AGXX40 KNHC 291825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2011 SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG 29N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. ERODING THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 30N77W ON SAT WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. 15-20 KT WINDS ARE FOUND IN FAR NW WATERS BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP OBS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 23N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER PRES TO THE S...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING S OF HAITI ALONG 73W WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN SPEED UP A BIT WED AND THU AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI THEN DIMINISH SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLC WEAKENS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY THU...MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN FRI...AND CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WEST IN THE SW GULF. DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS SLOWLY IMPROVING. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO THU MORNING AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL STORM. BUOY 42055 IS LOCATED NE OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE QUADRANT OF HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS...AND HAS BEEN USED AS A BASIS FOR THE RADIUS OF BOTH 12 FT SEAS AND 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE SW GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A REMNANT LOW OF ARLENE MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO AND DISSIPATES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 20N TO 25N W OF 93W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL