000 AGXX40 KNHC 290705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2011 SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG 29N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. EATING INTO THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE N FL COAST...PASSING QUICKLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF HISPANIOLA HAS FRACTURED SOME OF ITS LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU. SOME OF THE MODEL SUGGEST THAT THIS ENERGY COULD REMAIN IN TACT AND BECOME CAUGHT IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY AS HANDLED BY THE MODELS. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0152 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OVER FAR NW WATERS THAT WERE CONFIRMED BY SHIP WJBJ AT 0400 UTC. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWED WINDS THIS STRONG. SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY CORRECTION NECESSARY DUE TO THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS. FARTHER S...FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER PRES TO THE S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRIMARILY OVER WATERS S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0150 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W. THIS IS STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACCORDINGLY. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS COULD BE ENCOUNTERED IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI AND MOVE INTO NICARAGUA BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH BY FRI AS THE WAVE PASSES W. WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE ALREADY FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. ARLENE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 47W S OF 14N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FRESH WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22N95W AT 29/0600 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. BUOY 42055 IS WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. IT REPORTED 27 KT E-SE WINDS WITH 10 FT SEAS AT 0500 UTC. THE 0332 UTC ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER OF ARLENE...BUT SHOWS THAT STRONG SE WINDS EXTEND WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT. ARLENE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM THU MORNING NEAR TAMPICO...MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH IN THE SW GULF AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LINGERING LOW PRES OVER MEXICO AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG INTO THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 21N TO 25N W OF 93W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER 000 AGXX40 KNHC 290705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2011 SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG 29N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. EATING INTO THE RIDGING OVER FAR NW WATERS. THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE N FL COAST...PASSING QUICKLY N OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF HISPANIOLA HAS FRACTURED SOME OF ITS LOW TO MID-LEVEL ENERGY NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU. SOME OF THE MODEL SUGGEST THAT THIS ENERGY COULD REMAIN IN TACT AND BECOME CAUGHT IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE SE U.S. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS ENERGY AS HANDLED BY THE MODELS. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0152 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OVER FAR NW WATERS THAT WERE CONFIRMED BY SHIP WJBJ AT 0400 UTC. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWED WINDS THIS STRONG. SINCE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY CORRECTION NECESSARY DUE TO THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS. FARTHER S...FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER PRES TO THE S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRIMARILY OVER WATERS S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0150 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W. THIS IS STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AND CHANGES WILL BE MADE ACCORDINGLY. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS COULD BE ENCOUNTERED IN THE MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI AND MOVE INTO NICARAGUA BY FRI NIGHT. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH BY FRI AS THE WAVE PASSES W. WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE ALREADY FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. ARLENE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES CENTERED TO THE NE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 47W S OF 14N. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH FRESH WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22N95W AT 29/0600 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. BUOY 42055 IS WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. IT REPORTED 27 KT E-SE WINDS WITH 10 FT SEAS AT 0500 UTC. THE 0332 UTC ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER OF ARLENE...BUT SHOWS THAT STRONG SE WINDS EXTEND WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT. ARLENE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM THU MORNING NEAR TAMPICO...MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH IN THE SW GULF AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LINGERING LOW PRES OVER MEXICO AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE ALONG 29N WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG INTO THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 21N TO 25N W OF 93W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER