000 AGXX40 KNHC 281755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... ANIMATED VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR 20N93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE LOW DEEPENING TO ABOUT 1003 MB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVING SLOWLY W-NW TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW MAY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE NE OF THE LOW CENTER. STRONG TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 15 FT WILL EXIST IN THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF THROUGH EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27-28N AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN S OF 22N ALONG 68W/69W WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN LATE THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRI AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH FRI...THEN DIMINISH SAT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT W OF 70W. A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT W-SW OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST ALONG 29N THROUGH SAT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT PAST THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 23N DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE AND A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO 7 FT S OF 22N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL 000 AGXX40 KNHC 281755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... ANIMATED VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR 20N93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE LOW DEEPENING TO ABOUT 1003 MB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVING SLOWLY W-NW TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LOW MAY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE NE OF THE LOW CENTER. STRONG TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 15 FT WILL EXIST IN THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF THROUGH EARLY THU. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27-28N AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN S OF 22N ALONG 68W/69W WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN LATE THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRI AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH FRI...THEN DIMINISH SAT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT W OF 70W. A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT W-SW OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST ALONG 29N THROUGH SAT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT PAST THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 23N DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE AND A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 2 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO 7 FT S OF 22N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL