000 AGXX40 KNHC 280841 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 445 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011 CORRECTED FOR TROPICAL WAVES MOVING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28N WILL SLOWLY DRIFT N THROUGH THU. FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRIMARILY OVER WATERS S OF 22N. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES ON THU EVENING WHEN THE 18Z GFS CARRIED A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THROUGH N FL AND SENT A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH NE WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...BUT STILL SHOWS A DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH 20 KT WINDS ON ITS SE SIDE FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DO SO NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CMC DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE UKMET IS A WEAK VERSION OF THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY WITH ITS ORIGINS OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURFACE WAVE IN DISPUTE. THE GFS IS AMONG THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND WAVE. WILL LEAN THE NEXT OFFSHORE PACKAGE CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0210 UTC ASCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 32N53W WILL PERSIST SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLOWLY TRACK W...TRAILING BEHIND A COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT CURRENTLY LIES S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE NE OF THE CENTER...BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE ALOFT...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WAVE IN THE SW N ATLC JUST N OF PUERTO RICO. THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO INITIATE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAKENING THE UPPER LOW CONSIDERABLY BY FRI OVER EASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS 55W BY THU NIGHT WHILE A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM SLACKEN. THE 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS FAILED TO SHOW A CONVINCING CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THAT PASS SHOWED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE RIDGE SPANNING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IS STRONGEST. THE FORECAST WAS COORDINATED WITH THE HURRICANE SPECIALIST AND CALLS FOR THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES W-NW INTO MEXICO BY THU MORNING. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST WAS BEEFED UP ON ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN THE ANTICIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM BREAKING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT CURRENTLY LIES TO ITS E AND BECOMING A DISTINCT SYSTEM LATER TODAY. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER 000 AGXX40 KNHC 280841 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 445 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011 CORRECTED FOR TROPICAL WAVES MOVING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC SW N ATLC... THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28N WILL SLOWLY DRIFT N THROUGH THU. FRESH E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD PRIMARILY OVER WATERS S OF 22N. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES ON THU EVENING WHEN THE 18Z GFS CARRIED A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THROUGH N FL AND SENT A WAVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH NE WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...BUT STILL SHOWS A DISTINCT LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH 20 KT WINDS ON ITS SE SIDE FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DO SO NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CMC DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE UKMET IS A WEAK VERSION OF THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY WITH ITS ORIGINS OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURFACE WAVE IN DISPUTE. THE GFS IS AMONG THE MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS WITH THE BOUNDARY AND WAVE. WILL LEAN THE NEXT OFFSHORE PACKAGE CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 0210 UTC ASCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 32N53W WILL PERSIST SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SLOWLY TRACK W...TRAILING BEHIND A COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT CURRENTLY LIES S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE NE OF THE CENTER...BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE ALOFT...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE WAVE IN THE SW N ATLC JUST N OF PUERTO RICO. THIS PATTERN MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO INITIATE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAKENING THE UPPER LOW CONSIDERABLY BY FRI OVER EASTERN CUBA/JAMAICA. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS 55W BY THU NIGHT WHILE A SECOND WAVE MAY REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM SLACKEN. THE 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS FAILED TO SHOW A CONVINCING CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THAT PASS SHOWED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE RIDGE SPANNING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IS STRONGEST. THE FORECAST WAS COORDINATED WITH THE HURRICANE SPECIALIST AND CALLS FOR THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES W-NW INTO MEXICO BY THU MORNING. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE GRIDDED WIND FORECAST WAS BEEFED UP ON ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN THE ANTICIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM BREAKING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT CURRENTLY LIES TO ITS E AND BECOMING A DISTINCT SYSTEM LATER TODAY. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER