000 AGXX40 KNHC 271800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE LOW PRES AREA IS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 20N92W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS BOTH INTENSIFY THE LOW AND MOVE IT NW TOWARD TAMPICO ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE 20-30 KT OVER MOST OF THE SW GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING MAX SEAS TO BUILD TO 13-14 FT WED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW IN THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27-28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W AND HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 32N53W WILL PERSIST SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED...WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS. A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OR TUTT CELL NEAR 21N67W DRIFTS S TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO INITIATE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG 28N WILL SLOWLY DRIFT N THROUGH THU. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MAINLY S OF 22N BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS... EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO 7 FT S OF 22N. THE AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 24N BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL 000 AGXX40 KNHC 271800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE LOW PRES AREA IS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 20N92W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS BOTH INTENSIFY THE LOW AND MOVE IT NW TOWARD TAMPICO ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE 20-30 KT OVER MOST OF THE SW GULF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING MAX SEAS TO BUILD TO 13-14 FT WED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW IN THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27-28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W AND HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 32N53W WILL PERSIST SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED...WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS. A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OR TUTT CELL NEAR 21N67W DRIFTS S TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO INITIATE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG 28N WILL SLOWLY DRIFT N THROUGH THU. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS MAINLY S OF 22N BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS... EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO 7 FT S OF 22N. THE AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 24N BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL