000 AGXX40 KNHC 270721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE LOW PRES AREA IS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN COAST OF YUCATAN...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTING W THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NW IN THE EXTREME SW GULF TOWARD TAMPICO THROUGH THU. LOWEST PRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1005 MB. GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW MAX SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE 25-30 KT IN THE SW GULF TODAY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW TRACKS NW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 FT N AND NE OF THE LOW THROUGH THU. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX IN THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27-28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A WEAKER WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62-63W...AND HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 30N55W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND RESULTANT FRESH TO STRONG FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OR TUTT CELL NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 22N68W IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT S TONIGHT AND MON. THIS COULD PROVIDE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE WATERS AROUND HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TUE...TO INCLUDE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LAND. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL SLOWLY DRIFT N THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW IS NOTED BY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...GENERALLY N OF 28N W OF 75W ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N55W. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS MAINLY S OF 22N...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO 6 TO 7 FT S OF 22N. THE AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 24N BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN 000 AGXX40 KNHC 270721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE LOW PRES AREA IS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN COAST OF YUCATAN...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE DRIFTING W THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NW IN THE EXTREME SW GULF TOWARD TAMPICO THROUGH THU. LOWEST PRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1005 MB. GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW MAX SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE 25-30 KT IN THE SW GULF TODAY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW TRACKS NW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 FT N AND NE OF THE LOW THROUGH THU. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX IN THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27-28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A WEAKER WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62-63W...AND HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 30N55W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND RESULTANT FRESH TO STRONG FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OR TUTT CELL NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 22N68W IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT S TONIGHT AND MON. THIS COULD PROVIDE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE WATERS AROUND HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TUE...TO INCLUDE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LAND. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL SLOWLY DRIFT N THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW IS NOTED BY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...GENERALLY N OF 28N W OF 75W ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N55W. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS MAINLY S OF 22N...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IS NOTED AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO 6 TO 7 FT S OF 22N. THE AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 24N BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN