000 AGXX40 KNHC 260731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING...AND WILL SLOW DOWN AND PIVOT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING NW THROUGH THE SW GULF TOWARD TAMPICO THROUGH TUE. LOWEST PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1007 MB. ASCAT DATA FROM 03Z INDICATE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN ARE ALREADY 20 TO 25 KT. GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW MAX SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE 25 KT IN THE SW GULF THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW TRACKS NW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT ON THE N AND NE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH TUE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND WAVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE A SURFACE RIDGE WILL COVER THE NE GULF ALONG 27-28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ENHANCED FLOW IS BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 53W...AND S OF HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 30N55W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MON...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WED...MAINTAIN THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND RESULTANT FRESH TO STRONG FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KT. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE UPPER CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED N OF THE MONA PASSAGE...DRIFTING S. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE WATERS AROUND HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO INCLUDE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LAND. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 29N WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE EXCEPT S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN 000 AGXX40 KNHC 260731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING...AND WILL SLOW DOWN AND PIVOT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING NW THROUGH THE SW GULF TOWARD TAMPICO THROUGH TUE. LOWEST PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1007 MB. ASCAT DATA FROM 03Z INDICATE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN ARE ALREADY 20 TO 25 KT. GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW MAX SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE 25 KT IN THE SW GULF THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW TRACKS NW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT ON THE N AND NE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW PRES THROUGH TUE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND WAVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE A SURFACE RIDGE WILL COVER THE NE GULF ALONG 27-28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ENHANCED FLOW IS BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 53W...AND S OF HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 30N55W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MON...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WED...MAINTAIN THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND RESULTANT FRESH TO STRONG FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KT. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE UPPER CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED N OF THE MONA PASSAGE...DRIFTING S. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE WATERS AROUND HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO INCLUDE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LAND. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 29N WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE EXCEPT S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN