000 AGXX40 KNHC 251756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A BAND OF CLOUDINESS STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD BAND HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY TODAY AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHING HAVE DIMINISHED. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE MORE ROUND OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FIRE UP TONIGHT DUE TO THE HIGHLY DIURNAL NATURE OF TSTMS IN THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 86W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CREST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE ROLLING WSW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CLOSING OFF A WEAK LOW. GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EXPECT NE TO E WINDS AROUND 25 KT MON NIGHT AND TUE IN THE SW GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE INTO THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 86W WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON WITH A PIVOT POINT ANCHORED NEAR GUATEMALA DUE TO AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN SUN THROUGH TUE. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND QUINTANA ROO IN MEXICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50W IN THE ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE SUN THEN PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON. PERSISTENT RIDGING N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVEMENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 29N WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE EXCEPT S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL 000 AGXX40 KNHC 251756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A BAND OF CLOUDINESS STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD BAND HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY TODAY AS BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHING HAVE DIMINISHED. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE MORE ROUND OF ACTIVE CONVECTION FIRE UP TONIGHT DUE TO THE HIGHLY DIURNAL NATURE OF TSTMS IN THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 86W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CREST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE ROLLING WSW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CLOSING OFF A WEAK LOW. GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EXPECT NE TO E WINDS AROUND 25 KT MON NIGHT AND TUE IN THE SW GULF WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE INTO THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALONG 86W WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON WITH A PIVOT POINT ANCHORED NEAR GUATEMALA DUE TO AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN SUN THROUGH TUE. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND QUINTANA ROO IN MEXICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50W IN THE ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE SUN THEN PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON. PERSISTENT RIDGING N OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVEMENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 29N WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE EXCEPT S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL