000 AGXX40 KNHC 241755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF HAVE TAPERED OFF A LITTLE WHILE ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE SW GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO THE CENTRAL GULF IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LIGHT-MODERATE SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND SUN THEN INTO THE SW GULF BY TUE. EXPECT STRONG NE TO E WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE SW AND S CENTRAL GULF MON AND TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. GFS MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... DEEPENING A MONSOON LOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVING IT INTO THE SW GULF TUE. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND BETWEEN GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS SOUTHERN AXIS S OF 14N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE NICARAGUA COAST THIS EVENING IT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W THROUGH TUE...AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT W OF 75W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN THIS WEEKEND. NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWER AND SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND QUINTANA ROO IN MEXICO. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY SUN AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN BY EARLY MON MORNING...MAINTAINING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RESULTANT ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. 8 TO 12 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH E TO SE SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SPREADING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 28N WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N TO NEAR 30N TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE EXCEPT S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL 000 AGXX40 KNHC 241755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF HAVE TAPERED OFF A LITTLE WHILE ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE SW GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO THE CENTRAL GULF IS BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LIGHT-MODERATE SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND SUN THEN INTO THE SW GULF BY TUE. EXPECT STRONG NE TO E WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE SW AND S CENTRAL GULF MON AND TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. GFS MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE... DEEPENING A MONSOON LOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVING IT INTO THE SW GULF TUE. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND BETWEEN GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS SOUTHERN AXIS S OF 14N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE NICARAGUA COAST THIS EVENING IT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W THROUGH TUE...AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT W OF 75W. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE AMPLIFYING WAVE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN THIS WEEKEND. NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWER AND SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND QUINTANA ROO IN MEXICO. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY SUN AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN BY EARLY MON MORNING...MAINTAINING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RESULTANT ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. 8 TO 12 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH E TO SE SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SPREADING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 28N WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N TO NEAR 30N TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE EXCEPT S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL