000 AGXX40 KNHC 240712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND N CENTRAL GULF...HAVE STARTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CONVECTION HAD ERUPTED IN THE EVENING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE TEXAS COAST SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENING AND MOVING ONSHORE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH FRESH NE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN COAST IN THE EVENINGS. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS NW THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF BY TUE. EXPECT STRONG NE TO E WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE SW AND S CENTRAL GULF MON AND TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. WHILE THERE REMAINS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE WAVE...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...DEEPENING A LOW OVER THE SW GULF BY TUE. FORECAST WILL REFLECT A MODEL BLEND BETWEEN GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE INTO THE SW GULF MON THROUGH TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY TO THE GULF AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LONGER FETCH AND DURATION OF SE WINDS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W FROM JAMAICA TO COLOMBIA WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY THIS EVENING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. AN INTENSIFYING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W THROUGH TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY SUN AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN BY EARLY MON MORNING...MAINTAINING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RESULTANT ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. BUOYS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE SHOWS SEAS ALREADY REACHING UP TO 12 FT...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH E TO SE SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 27N WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N TO NEAR 30N BY FRI NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE FROM A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN 000 AGXX40 KNHC 240712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND N CENTRAL GULF...HAVE STARTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CONVECTION HAD ERUPTED IN THE EVENING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF THE TEXAS COAST SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENING AND MOVING ONSHORE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 26N FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH FRESH NE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN COAST IN THE EVENINGS. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY DRIFTS NW THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF BY TUE. EXPECT STRONG NE TO E WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE SW AND S CENTRAL GULF MON AND TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. WHILE THERE REMAINS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE WAVE...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...DEEPENING A LOW OVER THE SW GULF BY TUE. FORECAST WILL REFLECT A MODEL BLEND BETWEEN GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE INTO THE SW GULF MON THROUGH TUE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY TO THE GULF AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LONGER FETCH AND DURATION OF SE WINDS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W FROM JAMAICA TO COLOMBIA WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND APPROACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY THIS EVENING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. AN INTENSIFYING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W THROUGH TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY SUN AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN BY EARLY MON MORNING...MAINTAINING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND RESULTANT ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. BUOYS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE SHOWS SEAS ALREADY REACHING UP TO 12 FT...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH E TO SE SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 27N WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N TO NEAR 30N BY FRI NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE FROM A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN