000 AGXX40 KNHC 231654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 30N WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE SE WINDS E OF 88W WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A TROUGH IN THE W GULF FROM 29N92W TO 21N97W WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE AS A N-S PRES GRADIENT RETURNS TO THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE SUN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF THEN BACK TO THE E AND SE AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER WEST ON TUESDAY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS WILL INTENSIFY LATE MON AND TUE TO AT LEAST 25 KT...ALLOWING SEAS IN THE SW GULF TO BUILD OVER 10 FT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC... PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 27N WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N TO NEAR 30N BY FRI NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ENTER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY. AN INTENSIFYING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W THROUGH TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY SUN AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL