000 AGXX40 KNHC 160758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK REMNANTS OF TUTT PERSISTING FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE TO W CENTRAL GULF...WHILE SHORTWAVE DIGS SE INTO N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL ZONES. SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND AMPLIFY INTO THE TUTT WEAKNESS TO CARVE OUT MID TO UPPER TROUGH FROM NEAR FLORIDA BIG BEND TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THIS EVENING. W PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WILL THUS REMAIN UNDER VERY STABLE UPPER REGIME WHILE THE TROUGH ENHANCED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS FLORIDA AND WRN CUBA. WEAK HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE CENTERED ACROSS THE E CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH SAT...WITH 15-20 KT OF S-SE FLOW ALONG THE UPPER MEXICAN AND TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH N PORTIONS OF THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS AND WRN CUBA SAT AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF SAT EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. LLVL WIND SURGE WITH THIS WAVE OFFERS GOOD POSSIBILITY OF PASSING SQUALLS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... W CARIB TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THIS MORNING AND BECOMING INVOLVED WITH EPAC MONSOONAL TROUGH. ERN CARIB TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA ALONG 70W TO ERN COAST OF DOM REP WITH LLVL SELY WIND SURGE BEHIND IT IGNITING SCATTERED MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC...IN PART TO FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH UPPER TROUGH N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS ENERGETIC WAVE WILL CONTINUE W TO W-NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACHING ALONG ABOUT 77W BY 12Z FRI AND ALONG 81W 00Z SAT. WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIB...AND ESPECIALLY ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI AND COULD FLARE UP SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WRN CARIB AS GULF OF MEXICO UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SAT. LOOK FOR FRESH TRADES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE W CARIB TODAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRI AS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE WAVE S OF 14N OR SO TODAY AND WILL SPREAD NW AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL CARIB. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC NELY FLOW AND SAL OCCURRING AHEAD OF CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS AREA FROM THE E SAT. THIS WAVE IS HIGH AMPLITUDE AND SOMEWHAT ELONGATED NE TO SW ATTM AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG ITCZ AHEAD OF THE WAVE...ACROSS N PORTIONS...NEAR WAVE AXIS...AND BEHIND IT. SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N66W TO JUST N OF THE FAR NW BAHAMAS. A SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC IS AIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT THE WEAK FRONT E NEXT 24-26 HOURS AND OUT OF THE AREA...LEAVING A WEAK TROUGH SW TO NEAR 26N70W BY 36 HOURS. THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS OFF TO THE E ATTM BUT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEAKLY W TO NEAR 75W OVER THE WEEKEND...UNDERNEATH THE EXITING FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL FRESHEN ELY TRADES S OF 23N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AND YIELD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS IN THE WAVE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FAR N EXTENSIONS OF CENTRAL CARIB TROPICAL WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CHANCE FOR WAVE RELATED WEATHER TO AFFECT STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND KEYS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...POSSIBLY SHIFTING NW INTO EXTREME S FLORIDA SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING