000 AGXX40 KNHC 151900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3000 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING TUTT REMNANTS EXTEND FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WILL BE FORCED SE NEXT 24 HOURS TO YIELD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS ALL BUT SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WITH A SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE SE INTO NW PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CARVE OUT NEW UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM NRN FLORIDA TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU AFTERNOON. THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE E PORTION WITH A RIDGE NW TO NE TEXAS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. AS A RESULT...LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH 15-20 KT OF S-SE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS S OF 28N AND W OF 95W. THE HIGH AND RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING...THEN REFORM AS A RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 28N THROUGH SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN CARIB WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT WITH N PORTIONS OF THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS AND WRN CUBA SAT AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT INDUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MON. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY OCCUR AS PASSING SQUALLS AND/OR TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WEAK ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS SW N ATLC ALONG 23-24N IS COMBINING WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIB TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. THE FIRST OF THE TROPICAL WAVES WAS ANALYZED ALONG OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 64W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG IT...AND WITHIN 150 NM TO ITS E. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEN BE APPROACHING JAMAICA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT AND INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA LATE SUN INTO MON BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED SLOWER MOTION VERSUS THE GFS'S FUTURE MOTION. BEHIND IT...SE WINDS OF 20 KT TO BRIEF SPEEDS OF 25 KT ALONG WITH THE SQUALLS AND TSTMS MOVING WNW BEHIND ITS AXIS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WRN CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND SAT. MODELS SUGGEST...FOR THE MOST PART...THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BASIN THEN FRESHEN ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AS SECOND WAVE REACHES W PORTIONS. DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING ACROSS THE W ATLC IS KEEPING ATLC RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN ATLC AND EXTENDING ONLY TO 60-65W...ALLOWING FOR ONLY 15-20 KT ELY TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON SAT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AND ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS WAVE SHOULD THEN ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN...AND REACH TO NEAR S CENTRAL HISPANIOLA ON MON BASED ON INDICATIONS FROM MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO A NEW WEAK 1011 MB LOW JUST E OF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W. A WEAK RIDGE IS ALONG 24N AND E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E OF THE WATERS ON THU. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS WILL BE SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH S TO 27N AND E OF 72W BEGINNING SHORTLY AND INTO TONIGHT. A NEW RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 29N FRI...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY S SAT THROUGH MON AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS FOR DAYS 3-5. THESE WINDS MAY POSSIBLY INCREASE TO HIGHER SPEEDS IF THE LOW TO THE N DEEPENS MORE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE TO THE S. THE EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIB WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS FRI THROUGH SUN...REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE FAR SW PORTION LATE SUN INTO MON. SQUALLS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THERE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING