000 AGXX40 KNHC 150755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING TUTT REMNANTS EXTEND FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA SW TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WILL BE FORCED SE NEXT 24 HOURS TO YIELD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS ALL BUT SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WITH A SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE SE INTO NW PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN CARVE OUT NEW UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM NRN FLORIDA TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY AT SFC...WEAK 1015 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF WITH REMNANTS OF OLD TROUGH THROUGH STRAITS AND NW BAHAMAS DRIFTING SE. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH 15-20 KT OF S-SE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 29N BY SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN CARIB WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT WITH N PORTIONS OF THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE STRAITS AND WRN CUBA SAT AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH IT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WEAK ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS SW N ATLC ALONG 23-24N COMBINING WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CARIB TO PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXTENDING FROM NEAR 80W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. FIRST TROPICAL WAVE SEEM TO HAVE FRACTURED WITH N PORTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT ATLC WHILE SRN PORTION KEPT MOVING W AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 77W. LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT HAS BEEN STRETCHED NEARLY THE ENTIRE TIME IT MOVED ACROSS THE ATLC. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE WILL FEED OFF MID TROPOSPHERIC JET IN THE WRN CARIB AND REINTENISFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT EPAC NEXT 48 HOURS. SECOND WAVE ENTERING ERN CARIB ATTM WITH SELY WIND SURGE BEHIND IT AND SQUALLS AND TSTMS MOVING QUICKLY NW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ERN CARIB WATERS AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE N AND NW OF THE WAVE...LIKELY SAL. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE W TO WNW NEXT 24 HOURS AND REACH NEAR 70W BY 00Z THU AND ALONG 76W BY 00Z FRI. N PORTION OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LLVL WIND SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS AS WAVE TRANSLATES W. WAVE HAS ENCOUNTERED MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE PAST 12-18 HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO SEE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS BY LATE FRI ACROSS THE WRN CARIB AND ALSO FEED OFF MID TROPOSPHERIC JET FOR REJUVENATION THERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BASIN THEN FRESHEN ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS SECOND WAVE REACHES W PORTIONS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY TRAILING THIS WAVE WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND SHIFT NW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING ACROSS THE W ATLC IS KEEPING ATLC RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN ATLC AND EXTENDING ONLY TO 60-65W...ALLOWING FOR ONLY 15-20 KT ELY TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THESE WATERS SAT FOR ENHANCED WINDS SEAS AND WEATHER...WHILE SAL AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE SW N ATLC DROPPING DOWN INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 30N AFTER MOVING OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 74W. THIS FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THU...PUSHING E OF THE AREA LATE THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 23N/24N. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE MOVES BY TO THE N...THEN A NEW RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG 29N FRI AND SAT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGTHENS AS THE RIDGE SETS UP COMBINED WITH TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT AREA OF THE CAROLINAS. EXTREME NRN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIB WILL REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS EARLY FRI AND THE SS BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI EVENING. SQUALLS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THERE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING