000 AGXX40 KNHC 141837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 24N90W TO THE FAR E BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. 1017 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 27N87W WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU THEN WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 29N BY SAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST BEING IN THE FAR NW GULF WHERE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER INTERIOR TEXAS STRENGTHENS. THE SECOND EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST WHERE THE TYPICAL NE 15-20 KT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURGE WILL OCCUR. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA SAT FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH IT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AS CAPTURED BY A 1430 UTC ASCAT PASS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 17N ALONG 67W WITH LIMITED ASSISTED CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WED THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI...THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT. THE STRONGER TRADES WILL EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THAT AREA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 14N ALONG 57W. 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED INTO WED NIGHT...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL REINFORCE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE SW N ATLC DROPPING DOWN INTO THE AREA AFTER MOVING OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO 30N79W. THIS FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 27N TONIGHT THROUGH THU...PUSHING E OF THE AREA LATE THU. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 23N/24N AS NOTED BY A 1428 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA AS THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE MOVES BY TO THE N...THEN A NEW RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ALONG 29N FRI AND SAT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGTHENS AS THE RIDGE SETS UP COMBINED WITH TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT AREA OF THE CAROLINAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY