000 AGXX40 KNHC 140751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 351 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A TUTT AXIS EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA BAY SW TO WEAK VORTEX NEAR 21N93W. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND WRN ATLC WILL FORCE THE TUTT SE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND YIELDING A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS ALL BUT SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN BY LATE WED. AFOREMENTIONED ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY HANGING UP ALONG THE NE COASTAL WATERS...WHERE IT WILL MEANDER NEXT 24 HOURS AND PROVIDE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE... WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS...YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SINK S TO ALONG 25N WED THEN WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NE TO ALONG 28N BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 25N W OF 95W EARLY WED CONTINUING THROUGH FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIB W OF 63W WITH DOWNSTREAM MID ATLC TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 12N55W AND INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W. UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SHIFT E NEXT 24 HOURS AND LEAVING A SHARP TROUGH TO THE SW TO NEAR 11N58W. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO REMAIN ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY AS IT MOVES W TO W-NW NEXT 24 HOURS AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY 06Z WED AND FROM CENTRAL LEEWARDS TO NEAR 10N64W BY 12Z WED. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-MID LEVEL WIND SURGE OF 25-30 KT THAT WILL IGNITE CONVECTION AS IT TRANSLATES MORE NW WED TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND THEN INTO THE NE CARIB WED EVENING AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ENCOMPASS THE CENTRAL WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY RECENT SHIP OBS. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND E TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE BASIN FROM 11N TO 17N THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKENED BY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SINKING S ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SW N ATLC WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIB THIS MORNING AND HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND INTO THE NE CARIB. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN STRETCHED CONSIDERABLY NE TO SW FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW AND IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND HAVE THUS DROPPED IT FROM MY PROGS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHILE A SECOND FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING E OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST ATTM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ALONG IT...AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY SE AND REACH S OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY 12Z WED. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL RESIDE S OF THIS FEATURE...WITH SELY TRADES TO 15 KT E OF 70W AND LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. SW TO W WINDS 15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH...OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MILD SEAS TO PREVAIL NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THE ENERGETIC TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIB TONIGHT WILL MOVE NW...WITH N PORTIONS OF THE WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS THU AND REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF AND FAR WRN ATLC MAY PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING