000
AGXX40 KNHC 131756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE SE GULF STRETCHING 
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH 
IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NE FROM THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC AND IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N E OF 90W. A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM TAMPA BAY S TO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 30-60 
NM W OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE 1017 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED 
NEAR 27N86W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 27N ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 
1-3 FT SEAS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE 
NE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE DISSIPATING. THE 
RIDGE WILL THEN SINK S TO ALONG 25N WED THEN WILL SHIFT BACK TO 
THE NE TO ALONG 28N BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 25N W OF 95W EARLY WED 
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS NEAR THE 
TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL NICARAGUA PRODUCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E 
PACIFIC LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ENCOMPASS THE E AND 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES 
NE OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA WITH SEAS UP TO 13 
FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND TO 
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE BASIN FROM 11N TO 17N THROUGH THE WEEK. A 
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 17N55W TO JUST SE 
OF TRINIDAD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT 
THEN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...AND FINALLY W CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH 
FRI. A MORE ENERGETIC TROPICAL WAVE IS FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS 
CURRENTLY S OF 12N ALONG 48W. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL 
N ATLC TUE THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED...MOVING INTO THE W 
CARIBBEAN LATE THU AND FRI. WINDS WILL BE REINVIGORATED TO 20-25 
KT BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THIS WAVE.

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC...
A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO JUST E OF THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM 
E OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT. 1017 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N77W. THIS HIGH 
WILL SHIFT SE MERGING WITH RIDGING ALONG 24N TONIGHT AND TUE AS 
LOW PRES AND AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH THE NW PORTION 
FROM THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE 5-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 
2-4 FT...EXCEPT 1-3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL 
ENTER THE NW PORTION TUE NIGHT SHIFTING E OF THE AREA THU. 
EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 28N E OF THE 
FRONTAL TROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NW-N BEHIND THE FRONTAL 
TROUGH. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN FRI.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY